Cardano News Today: Cardano Whales Accumulate Amid Downturn, But Bearish Tech Clouds Recovery

Cardano (ADA) has seen increased accumulation by large holders, or "whales," amid recent price declines, with wallets holding 10 million to 100 million ADA adding 140 million tokens ($89.6 million) despite a 26.2% monthly drop. This activity, observed from October 10 to the present, contrasts with broader market weakness and suggests institutional confidence in the token's potential for stabilization or recovery BeInCrypto^[1]. On-chain data also shows a higher low in the Money Flow Index (MFI), indicating capital inflows during the downturn, as both whales and retail traders added exposure BeInCrypto^[1].

However, technical indicators remain mixed. The Smart Money Index (SMI) has not shown a significant rebound, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lacks bullish divergence, which is critical for confirming a sustained reversal. ADA's RSI at 30 suggests oversold conditions, but without divergence, the recovery is expected to lag behind other top altcoins BeInCrypto^[1]. A descending triangle pattern on the daily chart further underscores bearish pressure, with a daily close above $0.68 seen as a potential catalyst for a short-term rally toward $0.76–$0.89. A break below $0.61, however, could push the price to $0.55 BeInCrypto^[1].

Whale behavior has stabilized in recent weeks, with large holders (1 million to 10 million ADA) maintaining consistent positions. This cautious approach contrasts with earlier accumulation phases, such as January's slight increase from 2,453 to 2,483 whale addresses, and suggests a wait-and-see stance ahead of a potential breakout BlockNews^[2]. Meanwhile, ADA's Average Directional Index (ADX) has fallen to 17.09, signaling weak momentum and a range-bound phase. A golden cross-a bullish signal-could trigger a 20% surge toward $1.03 if the token holds its key support level at $0.95 BlockNews^[2].

Recent developments, including ETF inclusion and Brave Wallet integration, have added institutional and retail demand. Hashdex's addition of ADA to its Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF has expanded access to risk-averse investors, while Brave's 100 million-user base now supports ADA transactions . These moves, combined with whale accumulation of 70 million ADA in a single week, reinforce bullish sentiment .

Derivatives markets also show mixed signals. Open Interest (OI) for ADA futures has risen to $1.76 billion, but the long/short ratio remains nearly balanced at 49.78%/50.22% . Positive funding rates, such as the 0.0072% reading observed earlier this week, suggest growing long-position dominance, historically linked to sharp rallies BeInCrypto^[1]. However, MACD convergence indicates indecision, and a sustained bullish crossover is needed to confirm a trend reversal .

Analysts remain divided on the short-term outlook. While some view the current accumulation as a precursor to a $1.20–$1.32 rally, others caution that a breakdown below $0.80 could prolong consolidation . Institutional inflows and ecosystem growth, such as Cardano's updated roadmap and increased on-chain activity, are seen as long-term positives, but immediate price action will hinge on whether buyers can sustain higher closes and overcome bearish technical patterns BeInCrypto^[1].