Cardano News Today: Cardano's Fragile Rebound: Whales and Retailers Counter Bearish Signals

Cardano (ADA) has experienced a sharp decline of 26% over the past 30 days, with the price dropping to a multi-week low before stabilizing near $0.65. Despite the bearish trend, on-chain data and technical indicators suggest a fragile but potential recovery is underway. Whale activity and retail buying pressure have emerged as key factors in this stabilization, though critical technical and market challenges remain.

Whale accumulation has persisted even amid the selloff. Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million ADA increased their holdings from 13.06 billion to 13.20 billion tokens, representing an inflow of $89.6 million at current prices. This accumulation began before the crash and has not slowed, indicating confidence among large holders. Concurrently, retail traders have also stepped in, with the Money Flow Index (MFI) forming a higher low, signaling capital inflows despite falling prices BeInCrypto^[1].

However, technical indicators remain mixed. The Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks professional trader positioning, has not yet recovered from its sharp decline, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows no bullish divergence. While ADA's price hit a lower low during the crash, the RSI mirrored this, suggesting momentum has not reversed. A descending triangle pattern on the daily chart further highlights downside risks unless buyers sustain higher closes BeInCrypto^[1].

Short-term price action hinges on key support and resistance levels. A daily close above $0.68 could catalyze a recovery toward $0.76 and $0.89, while a break below $0.61 may extend the decline to $0.55. Analysts have also noted that the $1 psychological level remains a long-term target, contingent on sustaining the ascending trendline and absorbing large whale sell-offs. For instance, over 530 million ADA was sold by whales in a 48-hour period earlier this month, introducing new supply pressure and testing ADA's resilience The Coin Republic^[2].

Regulatory developments and institutional adoption add another layer of complexity. ADA's inclusion in Grayscale's Crypto 5 ETF, the first U.S. multi-crypto ETF, marks a step toward mainstream acceptance. However, this has not yet translated into immediate price strength, as the token remains range-bound. Additionally, the SEC's ongoing review of a dedicated Cardano ETF filing introduces uncertainty, though approval could attract institutional demand Coinedition^[3].

Long-term bullish projections persist despite near-term volatility. Analysts like Javon Marks have cited historical patterns and Fibonacci extensions, suggesting ADA could rise beyond $5 if it repeats its past cycle. However, these forecasts depend on maintaining higher lows and overcoming whale selling pressures. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.65 could trigger a 30% drop to $0.45, according to technical analyses The Currency Analytics^[4].

The market's current balance between bullish accumulation and bearish technical signals underscores ADA's precarious position. While whale and retail buying provide a foundation for a rebound, the absence of RSI divergence and the bearish triangle pattern indicate fragility. Investors must monitor the $0.65 support level closely, as its resilience will determine whether the recovery gains momentum or stalls.