Cardano News Today: Cardano's $0.62 Make-or-Break: Bulls Target $2.96, Bears $0.50

Cardano (ADA) faces a critical juncture as its price struggles to recover from a 20% monthly decline, trading near $0.64 amid mixed technical and on-chain signals. Analysts are split on whether the cryptocurrency can sustain a bullish breakout or if further downward pressure looms. The key to ADA's near-term trajectory hinges on its ability to hold critical support levels and capitalize on emerging momentum indicators.

Technical analysis suggests Cardano could see a dramatic reversal if buyers defend the $0.63–$0.64 range. A sustained breakout above this zone could trigger a 333% surge to $2.96, driven by a structured wave pattern observed since mid-2023, according to a Coinotag analysis. This projection aligns with rising liquidity metrics, including a three-month high in Chaikin Money Flow and a fully diluted valuation of $29.97 billion, the Coinotag analysis adds. However, the path to recovery remains precarious. A breakdown below $0.62, identified by analyst Ali Martinez as a pivotal threshold, could accelerate a decline toward $0.55 or even $0.50, according to a CoinCodex analysis.

On-chain data reveals a contrasting narrative. Whale activity has intensified, with large holders accumulating roughly 200 million ADA tokens despite the bearish price action, according to a Bitcoinist report. This quiet accumulation is underscored by stable market capitalization ($22–$25 billion) and steady circulating supply growth, reflecting long-term positioning rather than panic selling, the CoinCodex analysis notes. Meanwhile, derivatives markets show open interest exceeding $600 million, indicating active speculation amid price consolidation, the Bitcoinist report also observes.

Short-term momentum indicators offer further clues. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Chaikin Money Flow suggest improving buying pressure, with ADA trading above key support levels as of October 19, according to a U.Today analysis. A daily close above $0.67–$0.68 could signal renewed bullish intent, testing resistance at $0.74–$0.77 and potentially reigniting a rally toward $1.30–$1.86, the CoinCodex analysis adds. Conversely, failure to reclaim the 20-day moving average ($0.735) would likely extend the downtrend, the Bitcoinist report warns.

Broader market conditions add complexity. While Cardano's ecosystem benefits from upgrades like Hydra scaling and Midnight privacy tech, the Bitcoinist report notes, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has lost momentum, with ADA joining Bitcoin and Ethereum in bearish territory, according to a CryptoDaily article. ProShares' recent SEC filing for a diversified crypto ETF, including ADA, highlights growing institutional interest but does not immediately impact retail trading dynamics, the CryptoDaily article adds.

Analysts caution that ADA's revival depends on structural factors. "The $0.62 level is a make-or-break point," said Javon Marks, noting that a successful defense could validate a symmetrical triangle breakout pattern formed since early 2024, the Coinotag analysis reported. Conversely, a breakdown would force a retest of historical demand zones, delaying recovery timelines into early 2026, the CoinCodex analysis concludes.