Cardano's ETF Launch Hopes Face 75% Odds Despite Stagnant Market

Cardano, a prominent cryptocurrency, is currently under scrutiny as analysts evaluate the likelihood of an ADA Spot ETF launch this year. According to recent assessments, there is a 75% chance that a Cardano ETF will be launched in the current year. This prediction, however, is not without its skeptics, as the on-chain metrics of Cardano do not fully support this optimism.

Despite Bitcoin's recent surge past its March resistance at $96k, Cardano has remained stagnant, struggling to reclaim the $0.80-zone. This lag is unusual, as typically, when Bitcoin breaks through resistance levels, significant capital flows into high-cap altcoins, sparking a chain reaction of breakouts. However, Cardano and most top altcoins are still below their late Q1 highs, indicating a lack of momentum.

One of the key factors missing from the current market dynamics is the absence of ETFs, which have become a significant driver of altcoin hype. The launch of an ETF for Cardano could potentially ignite the market and drive significant capital inflows into the altcoin. However, the on-chain metrics of Cardano suggest that the altcoin's price might be getting ahead of itself, with network value outpacing actual transaction activity.

Cardano's Transaction Volume in Profit-to-Loss Ratio spikes whenever the altcoin gains upward momentum, indicating that profit-takers are flooding the market. Additionally, Cardano's NVT ratio has hit a three-month high, further highlighting the underlying weakness in the altcoin's market dynamics. Buyers are not stepping up, capital inflows are sluggish, and resistance at the top keeps slamming the brakes on any rally attempt.

If this trend continues, a correction may beat the breakout to the finish line, making the 75% odds of a Cardano ETF seem optimistic without stronger on-chain support. The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is now approaching a critical supply wall, suggesting potential resistance for altcoins. Bitcoin's dominance is close to 65%, a level that historically signals capital concentration in BTC and potential outflows from altcoins.

With liquidity thinning across non-BTC, non-ETH assets, the need for institutional inflows into altcoins is more pressing than ever. This sets the stage for the intensifying ETF race, as altcoins seek to stay competitive in an increasingly BTC-heavy market landscape. Right now, momentum seems to be favoring Solana, as evidenced by analysts assigning a 90% probability to the launch of a Solana ETF. The TRUMP memecoin launch on the Solana network has further reinforced its position as a key contender for institutional capital and ETF approval.

For Cardano to remain competitive, it is crucial to reclaim overhead resistance zones. Failure to do so risks losing ground to competing altcoins. The first altcoin to secure SEC approval for an ETF will certainly gain a lead in market momentum. As the market waits for that green light, ADA might stay stuck in neutral, while the rest of the market anticipates the potential launch of a Cardano ETF.