Cardano's ETF Hopes Face 75% Odds, Profit-Taking Challenges

Cardano (ADA) is at the center of attention in the cryptocurrency market as the anticipation for the launch of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) grows. The potential approval of a Cardano ETF this year is estimated to have a 75% likelihood, presenting a significant opportunity for the altcoin. However, the current market conditions and profit-taking behavior are posing challenges for ADA to capitalize on this momentum.

Market analysts from COINOTAG have noted that ADA’s price momentum is being hindered by profit-taking, which could complicate its upward trajectory. This behavior is evident as ADA approaches the $0.70 mark, where a surge of holders start cashing out, leading to a spike in the Transaction Volume in Profit-to-Loss Ratio. Additionally, Cardano’s NVT ratio has reached a three-month high, indicating that the network value is outpacing actual transaction activity, suggesting that the altcoin’s price might be getting ahead of itself.

These metrics highlight a clear underlying weakness in the market for Cardano. Buyers are not stepping up, capital inflows are sluggish, and resistance at the top is preventing any rally attempts. If this trend continues, a correction may occur before a breakout. In this context, the 75% odds of a Cardano ETF, while promising, may seem optimistic without stronger on-chain support.

The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is approaching a critical supply wall, suggesting potential resistance for altcoins. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance is close to 65%, a level that historically signals capital concentration in BTC and potential outflows from altcoins. With liquidity thinning across non-BTC, non-ETH assets, the need for institutional inflows into altcoins is more pressing than ever. This sets the stage for the intensifying ETF race, as altcoins seek to stay competitive in an increasingly BTC-heavy market landscape.

Currently, momentum seems to favor Solana [SOL], with analysts assigning a 90% probability to the launch of a Solana ETF. The TRUMP memecoin launch on the Solana network has further reinforced its position as a key contender for institutional capital and ETF approval. For Cardano to remain competitive, it is crucial to reclaim overhead resistance zones. Failure to do so risks losing ground to competing altcoins, as the first altcoin to secure SEC approval for an ETF will certainly gain a lead in market momentum.

In summary, while the prospect of a Cardano ETF is promising, the altcoin must overcome significant on-chain hurdles to take full advantage of this opportunity. Sustainable growth hinges on increased buying interest and a shift from profit-taking behavior. If growth persists, Cardano may find itself at the forefront of altcoin investment strategies.