Cardano ETF Approval Odds Surge to 79% on Positive SEC Interactions

Polymarket traders have significantly increased the odds of a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF approval to 79%, marking the highest probability ever recorded for the asset on the platform. This surge in confidence is backed by updated projections from analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who now estimate a 90% chance of approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The heightened probability comes on the heels of positive interactions between ETF issuers and regulators. This follows Grayscale's filing of an ETF proposal on Cardano with NYSE Arca earlier this year. Analysts interpret the ongoing communication between the commission and the SEC as a sign that the SEC may soften its stance on altcoin ETFs.

Balchunas noted that the likelihood of approval for ADA, Dogecoin, and XRP has all increased due to the positive mood of the SEC. The analysts also predict a 95% chance of approval for Avalanche, Polkadot, and Litecoin ETFs. These predictions are based on the precedent set by Bitcoin ETFs, notably BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which accumulated $70 billion in assets in just 341 days.

Cardano’s price is currently at $0.5768, down 3.85% on the day. However, the trading volume surged by more than 61% to $745.2 million, indicating new activity as speculation over ETFs mounts. The company has a market cap of $20.39 billion, placing it within the top 10 cryptocurrencies.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the oversold territory of 29.91. With ADA touching the low band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.5668, traders are keeping alert to see the possible short-term upside. The technical pressure might be piling up, but the historical trend shows that this kind of arrangement tends to be followed by severe rebounding.

The daily chart indicates that ADA has remained inside a broad ascending wedge structure. This formation has already caused significant rallies of 200% to 300%. Analysts tracking this trend have indicated that a retest of the $2.40 level is still possible, provided there is a hold on the wedge support and increasing momentum on the ETF.

Altcoin ETFs are gaining momentum with asset managers competing to recreate the success of Bitcoin-based funds. BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been the strongest, surpassing 31 days of consecutive inflows in June with an asset total of more than $70 billion after only 341 days. It has surged to become the largest U.S. ETF launch of all time.

Though Bitcoin momentum continues to lead, the same has not been recorded with Ether ETFs. Since its introduction in July 2024, inflows of Ethereum funds have been modest. Glassnode shows that the average ETC investor continued to be “significantly underwater” through May.

Cardano’s price is near oversold levels and could rally if ETF momentum continues and technical support holds. The current market sentiment and technical indicators suggest that ADA is poised for a potential rebound, driven by the increasing likelihood of ETF approval and the historical performance of similar cryptocurrencies.