Cardano ETF Approval Odds Hit 90% by 2025 Amid SEC Engagement

Cardano's potential ETF approval odds for 2025 have reached a peak, with a 90% chance of approval according to Polymarket data. This surge in optimism is reflected in the market sentiment, which has been positively impacted by the increased engagement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The SEC has shown constructive engagement through ongoing technical filings, which has bolstered expectations for a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF by the end of 2025. Key players in the ETF approval process, including Grayscale, have been pushing for an ADA ETF, although no direct public statements from Cardano's founder Charles Hoskinson have been reported. The increased communication from the SEC with ETF issuers has further strengthened the belief in the likelihood of approval.

Polymarket's data reflects significant optimism regarding SEC approval by December 31, 2025. This optimism has led to movements in ADA's trading price and speculative investments. Other assets like XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana may also see related impacts if similar approvals proceed. Historically, ETF approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum led to inflows and price surges, positioning Cardano as a central focus for speculative investment. The industry's response includes active engagement from leading ETF issuers, indicating a strong belief in eventual regulatory assent.

Bloomberg analysts, including Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, have highlighted a surge in technical filings, such as 19b-4 acknowledgements and S-1 amendment requests, as tangible evidence that the SEC is seriously considering the applications. This increased activity suggests that the regulatory body is taking significant steps towards approving a Cardano ETF, further fueling market optimism and speculative activities.