Cardano Drops 1.868% as Grayscale Files for ETF, Boosting Approval Odds to 87%

Cardano's latest price was $0.8083, down 1.868% in the last 24 hours. Grayscale, a prominent digital asset manager, has filed an S-1 form with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Cardano (ADA) dedicated ETF, in addition to an already approved 19b-4 form. This filing is part of a coordinated strategy to convince the American regulator to approve the ETF. The product, named Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF, is set to trade on NYSE Arca under the ticker GADA, with Coinbase Custody as the asset guardian. The price of ADA will be tracked using the CoinDesk Cardano Index (ADX).

On social media platform X, enthusiasm for the Cardano ETF is palpable. The Cardanians (@Cardanians_io) Twitter account tweeted that the S-1 is the official registration that explains how the Cardano ETF works, indicating that Grayscale seems ready and is likely counting on SEC approval. The context also favors ADA, as the SEC has approved “in-kind” mechanisms for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and the Project Crypto, conducted with the CFTC, seeks to clarify the legal status of tokens. Grayscale has also ranked Cardano in its Top 3 best weekly crypto performances, just behind XRP and Stellar.

Cardano (ADA) continues to capture investor attention as its chart structure and renewed ETF optimism combine to paint a bullish outlook. The cryptocurrency has been trading near crucial support zones, with technical signals suggesting that a significant breakout may be on the horizon. On the charts, ADA has been retesting the upper boundary of its descending wedge pattern, a formation that often precedes strong rallies. The token recently touched $1.02 before pulling back, but importantly, the retracement held above the wedge structure, keeping the bullish breakout pattern intact. The pullback also found support at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $0.85, which provided a strong defense against further downside. Holding above this level strengthens the bullish case, while the Stoch RSI reading of 3.14 reflects oversold conditions that typically precede upward reversals. Analysts note that a clear move above $0.94 would confirm the wedge breakout, potentially unlocking upside targets at $1.32 and $1.80. The latter level represents nearly 120% upside from current prices, in line with the measured move projected from the wedge formation. Still, risks remain if support levels fail, with a potential decline toward $0.32. However, ongoing consolidation suggests that buyers are actively absorbing dips, keeping sentiment constructive. This price action aligns with broader 2025 forecasts that highlight ADA’s potential to climb significantly higher.

Beyond technicals, external catalysts are also strengthening ADA’s outlook. Grayscale recently submitted an amended S-1 filing with the U.S. SEC, boosting the odds of a Cardano ETF approval to nearly 87%, up 11% in just one week. Such a development could be transformative for ADA, opening the door for institutional inflows. The proposed ETF would hold ADA directly, with Coinbase Custody providing security. Unlike futures-based products, the fund would track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index, offering a more transparent and less risky way for institutions to gain exposure to Cardano. The move highlights Cardano’s growing appeal among diversified crypto investors. If approved, an ETF would not only legitimize ADA in the eyes of traditional finance but also provide new liquidity streams that could support sustained price appreciation.

Recent developments surrounding Cardano highlight significant progress in its ecosystem, particularly focusing on institutional interest and technological advancements. Specifically, there is strong optimism about the potential approval of a Cardano ETF, with sources indicating an 87% likelihood of success based on market analyses. This aligns with increased activity in cryptocurrency ETF applications globally, suggesting a broader shift toward regulatory acceptance and market integration for Cardano.

In terms of regulatory milestones, the Securities and Exchange Commission has formally set October 26, 2025, as the decisive deadline for its assessment of the Cardano ETF application. This date represents the final regulatory window under standard procedures, underscoring a critical period for potential institutional adoption and legitimization of Cardano in the financial landscape.

Cardano's technical infrastructure continues to evolve, with a major overhaul of its Developer Portal announced for 2025. This initiative aims to attract Ethereum developers by integrating Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility, while simultaneously preserving Cardano's unique approach to formal verification. Such enhancements reflect a strategic effort to expand its developer base and foster innovation within its blockchain network.

Community and project developments are also prominent, as evidenced by updates from the Midnight initiative. On August 31, 2025, project contributor Dave expressed gratitude toward the Midnight community for their support in navigating and overcoming various implementation challenges. This highlights ongoing collaborative efforts to enhance Cardano's ecosystem through specialized protocols and community-driven solutions.

Cardano is witnessing sustained investor interest despite broader market fluctuations, with analysts pointing to a robust recovery trajectory driven by its fundamentals. Discussions underscore potential partnerships, such as one linked to Ripple, which could catalyze future growth and adoption. However, community forums also reflect skepticism regarding the pace of Cardano's development cycles, juxtaposed against optimistic forecasts for its long-term potential, balancing enthusiasm with critical evaluation of its progress.