Cardano's ADA Token Rebounds 7% Amidst Mixed Signals
2min read Cardano’s ADA token experienced a 7% price hike, but the underlying fundamentals paint a more complex picture. Despite a sharp 12.60% monthly decline, ADA remains 87% above its election-day opening price, indicating strong holder conviction. Investors have chosen to hold onto their unrealized gains rather than exit their positions, a sign of resilience in the face of market volatility.
However, on-chain data tells a different story. Cardano’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has dropped below pre-election levels, suggesting liquidity outflows. Additionally, the Whale Transaction Count for transactions over $100,000 has hit a cycle low, indicating a decrease in institutional activity. These factors raise questions about the sustainability of the recent price rebound.
For ADA to reignite market enthusiasm, it must confirm its support levels on the charts. Failure to do so could lead to further capitulation among holders, despite their current conviction. The altcoin’s price chart has shown three consecutive lower lows since February, breaking key support levels and signaling structural weakness. The latest breakdown on April 6 saw ADA lose the $0.58 support level, sparking concerns of a deeper correction.
This concern is reflected in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which has flipped negative. This suggests that, on average, recent ADA buyers are now at a loss. Despite this, ADA’s swift recovery to $0.6283 at press time indicates a 7% rebound, which may have restored some confidence in a recovery. However, it remains unclear whether this rebound is due to a market-wide supply squeeze or the conviction of HODLers in a bull rally.
Structural weakness poses a threat to HODLers’ conviction. With each failed support level, ADA holders face a critical decision: hold strong or exit before deeper losses unfold. If the MVRV ratio stays negative and buying pressure weakens, capitulation could be imminent. As Cardano drifts closer to its election-day price, investor confidence becomes more fragile. Without strong fundamentals to reinforce sentiment, a sell-off to breakeven levels could accelerate.
On April 7, trading volume surged to $1.98 billion, up from $941 million the previous day. Additionally, the whale cohort holding 100 million to 1 billion ADA accumulated 250 million ADA on April 10 alone. This whale-driven demand caught short-sellers off guard, forcing $901k in liquidations and resulting in a 7% rebound. However, the largest whale cohort, holding 12.6 billion ADA, has been sidelined, signaling caution. Dormant whale circulation over 180 days has also spiked, a historical warning sign of market tops.
With previously idle coins entering circulation and accumulation remaining weak, selling pressure could intensify. If ADA fails to hold above $0.58, structural weakness may escalate into full-scale capitulation. The future of ADA hinges on its ability to confirm support levels and maintain investor confidence amidst weakening fundamentals. 
