Cardano's ADA surges 70% since June 22, reaches 20-week high

ADA, the native token of the Cardano network, has experienced a significant price surge, rising over 70% since June 22. This upward trend suggests a potential end to the multimonth downtrend that reached its lowest point at $0.50 in June. The recent rally has seen ADA climb as much as 9% in the last 24 hours, reaching a 20-week high of $0.89 on Friday.

The Bollinger Bands (BB) volatility indicator for ADA suggests that the token has the potential to reach new all-time highs. When the ADA/USD weekly candlestick touches the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, it often signals an imminent rise above the indicator, indicating the beginning of upside volatility. Historically, ADA breaking the upper band has led to massive rallies, with increases of 1,500% in 2021, 117% in 2022, and 300% in 2024. The current squeezing of the Bollinger Bands and the price touching the upper band add weight to the hopes that a similar scenario may now play out.

Despite the impressive run over the last few weeks, ADA’s price is still nearly 4x away from its $3.10 all-time high from 2021. However, the price has sent multiple bullish signals on different time frames, suggesting that the rally is gaining momentum. ADA broke out of a bull flag on the weekly chart, flipping the upper boundary of the flag, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA into support. The measured target of the bull flag is $2.70, or a 216% increase from the current price. Additionally, a golden cross, formed when the 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day equivalent last week, reinforces the case for a continuation of the uptrend.

The moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD), which measures trend strength, produced a bullish cross as the ADA/USD trading pair validated a bull flag on the weekly chart. The metric began building positive bars after a “red” period, which began in early 2025. The weekly relative strength index (RSI) shows that ADA has more room to run before reaching overheated levels, similar to the cycle tops in 2018, 2021, and December 2024. Even with the daily RSI at 80, history shows that ADA could still rally 130% more to $1.80, according to pseudonymous analyst Deezy.