Cardano (ADA) Surges 42% in July, Tests Key $0.88 Resistance

Cardano (ADA) has seen a significant price surge, trading around $0.857 after a strong upward movement from $0.60 lows in early July. The asset is now retesting a key resistance area around $0.88, which is marked by prior liquidity and labeled as a weak high. This resistance level is crucial as traders are closely monitoring for a potential breakout or rejection, with volatility building as the price approaches this threshold.

On the daily chart, ADA has completed a clean Break of Structure (BOS) and reclaimed a key smart money zone above $0.83. The price has now pushed into a previous inefficiency zone, with $0.88 acting as a short-term barrier. The Change of Character (CHoCH) zones around $0.75 and $0.84 have flipped, indicating growing bullish intent after months of lower highs and compressed ranges.

The weekly Fibonacci retracement from the $0.27 bottom to the $1.32 top shows that ADA is currently hovering just above the 0.5 Fib level at $0.80. Price has also broken out of a long-standing descending channel, confirming a structural reversal from a macro downtrend. This technical development strengthens the argument for a sustained move toward $0.93 (Fib 0.382) and possibly $1.07.

The recent upside in Cardano's price is supported by multiple technical and sentiment-based catalysts. The 4-hour chart shows a sustained breakout from a rising parallel channel, with ADA forming higher highs and higher lows above the EMA 20/50/100/200 stack. The entire EMA cluster is trending upward, a strong sign of bullish continuation. Bollinger Bands are expanding with price holding near the upper band at $0.867, signaling elevated Cardano price volatility and confirming the strength of the current move.

The 30-minute VWAP shows price trading firmly above the volume-weighted average at $0.840, with upper deviation bands extending, suggesting dominance by buyers. Momentum indicators are also favorable. The RSI on the 30-minute chart is at 65.22, indicating bullish pressure without being overheated. MACD remains positive, and Parabolic SAR dots are below price, supporting the trend direction.

On-chain and derivatives data add further confidence. Open interest has risen 2.98% to $1.6B despite a 39% drop in volume, suggesting positioning is shifting toward longer-duration exposure. Binance’s long/short ratio sits at 2.79 for ADA/USDT, while top trader sentiment is even more bullish at 3.05, indicating heavy long-side speculation.

Price action on the 4-hour chart is unfolding inside an ascending parallel channel, which remains intact after a brief mid-channel consolidation. ADA is currently pressing against the upper boundary of this channel, with bullish On-Balance Volume (OBV) momentum supporting the move. OBV currently reads 441.32M, consistent with accumulation behavior. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is slightly below the midpoint at 47.14, which suggests there is still room for capital inflows before price overheats. With funding rates positive but moderate, ADA’s rally does not appear overly leveraged at this stage.

A breakout above $0.88 would likely open the path toward the $0.93–$0.95 region, which aligns with the weekly Fib retracement and prior BOS levels. If rejected, price may pull back toward the midline of the 4H channel near $0.81 or even the $0.78 support marked by EMA50 and Bollinger Band base.

As Cardano price today sustains gains above $0.85, bulls aim for a breakout beyond the $0.88–$0.90 resistance band. A successful move above this zone could open a fast push toward $0.926 and then $1.00. However, failure to breach $0.88 could trigger a brief rejection toward $0.81 or $0.78, where strong dynamic support exists. Momentum remains favorable across short-term timeframes, but traders should monitor volume and open interest for confirmation of sustained breakout strength. The structure remains bullish while ADA trades above the $0.80–$0.82 range.