Is Cardano (ADA) Facing a Prolonged Downtrend Below $0.37?

Cardano (ADA) has entered a critical phase in its price trajectory, with the token trading below $0.37 in November 2025 and exhibiting a confluence of bearish technical and on-chain signals. This analysis synthesizes recent data to assess whether ADA is on the cusp of a prolonged downtrend, or if short-term stabilization could catalyze a reversal.

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Consensus

The technical landscape for ADA is dominated by bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has approached oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has recorded a bearish crossover, signaling deteriorating bullish sentiment. On the weekly chart, ADA remains below key moving averages-the 9-week EMA at $0.45 and the 21-week EMA at $0.66-further underscoring weak momentum. The monthly MACD has also turned bearish, a pattern historically correlated with sharp price declines.

Derivatives data adds to the bearish narrative. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate has turned negative, indicating that short sellers are paying long holders-a dynamic often preceding sharp price drops. If the current downtrend persists, ADA could test the October 10 low of $0.27. However, a potential short-term recovery might push the price toward $0.47, though no strong reversal signals currently exist.

On-Chain Metrics: Weakness in Investor Behavior

On-chain data paints a similarly grim picture. Santiment's Social Dominance metric has plummeted to an annual low of 0.032%, reflecting diminished market interest and rising dormant wallet activity. The Age Consumed index, which tracks the sale of older ADA holdings, has also declined, suggesting reduced selling pressure from long-term holders but limited accumulation from new buyers.

The 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has dropped to -19.7%, indicating that most ADA holders are in a loss position-a condition often labeled an "Extreme Buy Zone" by market analysts. Meanwhile, net exchange flows show outflows surpassing inflows, as investors move tokens from centralized platforms to self-custody solutions, reducing immediate selling pressure. However, this trend does not negate the broader bearish context, as ADA's 24-hour trading volume remains stagnant at $500 million to $576 million despite continued price declines.

Derivatives and Market Sentiment: Short Sellers in Control

The derivatives market reinforces the bearish outlook. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate's negative shift suggests short sellers are dominating the narrative, a pattern historically linked to sharp ADA declines. Additionally, whale activity has shown increased buying interest, hinting at institutional confidence in Cardano's long-term prospects. Yet, this optimism contrasts with the immediate market reality: ADA's price has fallen below $0.37, a critical psychological threshold, and is now trading near two-month lows.

Vision 2030 and Long-Term Fundamentals

Cardano's Vision 2030 roadmap outlines ambitious targets, including a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $3 billion and 10 million active users by 2030. However, as of November 2025, ADA's price and TVL remain far from these goals. The network's focus on lattice-based cryptography and formal verification has diverged from competitors like Ethereum, which are adopting STARKs and hash-based methods. While these innovations may appeal to institutional investors, they have not yet translated into price appreciation, leaving ADA's market capitalization down by $25 billion in 2025.

Conclusion: A Prolonged Downtrend Looms

The convergence of bearish technical indicators, weak on-chain metrics, and derivatives-driven short-term pressure suggests that ADA is likely to remain below $0.37 for the near term. While a TD Sequential buy signal and a multi-year trendline hold offer faint hope for stabilization, the broader momentum remains decisively bearish. If ADA breaks below $0.37, it could extend its downtrend toward $0.27 or $0.23. Investors should remain cautious, as the path to $0.54 or $0.60-a potential bullish reversal-requires a sustained and convincing breakout above key resistance levels.

For now, the data supports a prolonged bearish phase for ADA, with fundamentals and market sentiment aligning to reinforce the downward trajectory.