Cardano’s ADA Faces 27% Sell-Off as Whales Offload 270 Million Tokens

Cardano’s ADA is under significant pressure as whale wallets, which control over a third of the total supply, remain underwater. This situation signals potential distribution risks ahead, as these large holders could offload their assets, further impacting the market.

Despite efforts to reclaim the $1 mark, ADA continues to struggle with weak support and diminishing speculative interest. This raises concerns about the token's ability to sustain a recovery, as the market momentum weakens and key whale wallets remain underwater.

Data from Santiment indicates that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA now control a significant 35.62% of the total supply. This concentration means that the trading behavior of these whales can heavily influence price movements, especially during periods of market weakness. Mid-sized holders with 100,000 to 1 million ADA account for 16.23%, collectively controlling over half of ADA’s circulating supply. This distribution highlights a bifurcated market structure where both large and mid-sized holders play pivotal roles.

The recent trend of whales offloading ADA below their average cost basis raises alarms about potential further downside. Historical patterns show that after accumulating heavily in early 2025, these whales began trimming positions as prices approached breakeven, triggering notable price declines. The recent 270 million ADA sell-off could be an early indicator of renewed distribution pressure.

Reclaiming the $1 level is more than just a psychological hurdle for ADA; it represents a critical structural reset necessary to restore market confidence. Historical data shows that when whales began accumulating in January 2025, the price eventually rallied to their average cost basis, prompting partial offloading and subsequent price declines. Currently, ADA remains below this breakeven point, with whales still underwater and potentially poised to reduce holdings further. This dynamic creates a precarious environment where upward momentum is stifled by supply-side pressure.

Additionally, the $0.60 support level is under threat as weak buying interest fails to provide a robust floor. The interplay between whale distribution and lackluster demand could precipitate a deeper correction if no significant catalysts emerge.

From a technical perspective, ADA’s relative strength index (RSI) is approaching historically oversold levels, which in prior cycles have signaled potential rebounds. However, the current macro environment differs markedly from previous instances when Bitcoin’s strength catalyzed altcoin rallies. ADA/BTC pair analysis shows the token retesting February support levels with muted volume and flat momentum, indicating a lack of conviction among buyers. This further dampens price recovery prospects.

The convergence of whale fatigue, weak technical signals, and subdued speculative interest paints a cautious outlook for ADA in the near term. The $1 resistance level, once viewed as a catalyst for renewed bullish momentum, now appears increasingly formidable. Should whales continue to offload positions to mitigate losses, the risk of a capitulation event grows, potentially pushing ADA below the critical $0.60 support. Investors and traders should monitor whale wallet activity closely, as shifts in their behavior often presage significant price moves.

Strategic accumulation during oversold conditions could offer opportunities, but only if accompanied by increased volume and positive on-chain metrics signaling renewed confidence. Cardano’s ADA currently faces a challenging phase characterized by concentrated whale holdings underwater, weak technical momentum, and fading speculative interest. The dominance of large whale wallets in the 10M–100M ADA range underscores the importance of their trading decisions in determining ADA’s price direction. Without a decisive reclaiming of the $1 level and a resurgence in market conviction, ADA risks further downside pressure, with the $0.60 support level increasingly vulnerable. Market participants should remain vigilant, focusing on whale activity and technical signals to navigate this uncertain landscape effectively.