Is Cardano (ADA) in the Early Stages of a Bearish Downtrend? A Technical and On-Chain Analysis

Cardano (ADA) has entered a critical juncture in its price trajectory, with technical indicators and price action suggesting a deepening bearish momentum. As the cryptocurrency consolidates below key moving averages and tests long-term support levels, investors must assess whether this marks the early stages of a sustained downtrend or a temporary correction. This analysis synthesizes recent technical and on-chain insights to evaluate the risks and potential outcomes.

Technical Indicators Signal Prolonged Weakness

Cardano's price action in November 2025 reveals a textbook bearish setup. The asset is trading near $0.40, firmly below its 9-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), a configuration that typically reinforces downtrend bias. According to technical analysis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain in bearish territory, indicating weak demand and a lack of buying pressure to counter selling forces. Notably, ADA's failure to reclaim the $0.53 horizontal support level-a price point that had held for multiple cycles-has triggered a retest of a 924-day diagonal support line. A breakdown below this long-term barrier could accelerate the decline toward $0.10, echoing prior failed rally attempts.

Critical Support Levels at Risk

The immediate technical focus lies on a series of descending support levels. Weekly charts highlight key thresholds at $0.4800 and $0.4500, which could serve as short-term floors if sellers retreat. According to trading analysis, however, the more pressing concern is the $0.38 support zone. Analysts warn that a failure to defend this area could trigger a cascade toward $0.29, amplifying bearish sentiment. A weekly close below $0.2387 would represent a structural breakdown of ADA's macro trend, potentially unlocking further downside to $0.1512 or even $0.0938. These levels, while speculative, underscore the fragility of the current price structure.

On-Chain Data: A Mixed Picture

While technical analysis paints a grim outlook, on-chain data remains inconclusive. Efforts to assess transaction volumes, address activity, or the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio yielded no actionable insights in November 2025. This absence of on-chain validation introduces ambiguity, as it leaves unanswered whether the selling pressure stems from distressed liquidations or strategic profit-taking. Without robust on-chain metrics to corroborate technical signals, the bearish case remains partially unproven but not invalidated.

Implications for Investors

For short-term traders, the breakdown of key support levels presents a high-risk scenario. A move below $0.38 would likely trigger algorithmic stop-loss orders, exacerbating the downward spiral. Long-term holders, however, may view deeper corrections as opportunistic entry points, provided fundamental developments-such as Cardano's upcoming smart contract upgrades-remain on track. The critical variable will be the response of institutional buyers at these discounted levels; sustained demand could halt the decline, while continued apathy would cement a new bear market phase.

Conclusion

Cardano's technical profile in November 2025 aligns with early-stage bearish momentum, characterized by broken support levels and bearish oscillator readings. While on-chain data fails to provide clarity, the confluence of price action and indicator signals warrants caution. Investors should closely monitor the $0.38 and $0.2387 thresholds, as their integrity will determine whether this is a temporary pullback or the onset of a prolonged downtrend.