Cardano (ADA) Drops 17.3% in Two Weeks, Faces Critical Support Test at $0.60

Cardano (ADA) has been experiencing a downward trend recently, with both daily and hourly charts indicating a fragile structure around the $0.62 level. The moving averages are sloping downwards, and the price is compressing near support, suggesting a critical juncture for ADA. Analyzing the charts can provide insights into the potential future direction of ADA's price.

On the daily chart, ADA is trading at $0.628, below all key moving averages, including the 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs. This configuration is typically bearish. The 50 SMA acts as immediate dynamic resistance around $0.69, while the price struggles to stay above the crucial support zone between $0.62 and $0.60. The Heikin Ashi candles are printing smaller body candles with lower highs, indicating weakening momentum. If this compression continues, a downward break could occur unless bulls reclaim the 20-day SMA near $0.67. Over the past two weeks, ADA's price has declined by approximately 17.3%, dropping from a local high of $0.76 to the current $0.628. This downward move has been characterized by increasing volatility and failed breakout attempts, suggesting that buyers are losing control.

On the hourly chart, ADA briefly reclaimed the 20 and 50 SMAs but failed to push beyond $0.65. The recent rejection from this level pushed ADA back below the short-term moving averages. The 200 SMA, hovering at $0.662, remains untouched, indicating that medium-term sentiment hasn't changed. ADA has been consolidating between $0.61 and $0.64 for the past two days, forming a tight range. However, range trading often leads to explosive breakouts, and in this case, the repeated rejection at $0.65 leans bearish. The Heikin Ashi candles are now showing successive lower highs, aligning with a likely test of the $0.60 psychological support.

The horizontal support at $0.60 is both technical and psychological. If this level breaks, ADA's price could quickly drop toward $0.54, the next visible support zone from early April. Using a measured move projection, if the $0.60 level breaks, the projected move is $0.55, suggesting that a breakdown below $0.60 could see ADA move towards $0.54–$0.55 within days.

For the bullish case to emerge, ADA's price needs to close above $0.67 on the daily chart. This would place it back above the 20 and 50 SMAs and reintroduce $0.70 and $0.76 as immediate resistance targets. However, unless volume supports this move, any breakout may be short-lived. With both charts showing consistent resistance, tight ranges, and failure to reclaim critical SMAs, ADA's price appears more likely to test the $0.60 support and possibly break below it in the coming sessions. A conservative prediction suggests that if $0.60 holds, ADA's price may rebound to $0.67 short-term. If $0.60 breaks, expect $0.54–$0.55 as the next destination. The bears have the edge, but the next 48 hours could define the next two weeks for Cardano holders.