Cardano's ADA Drops 16% in June Despite Ecosystem Upgrades

Cardano, a prominent blockchain platform, concluded June 2025 with a 16% decline in its native token ADA's price, despite several significant ecosystem upgrades. The launch of the cbETH cross-chain bridge, the integration of ADA into Coinbase’s Base L2, and market speculation around cross-chain compatibility with XRP failed to bolster the price momentum. This decline was exacerbated by $182 million in outflows and the fact that only 46% of ADA holders remained in profit, indicating a loss of investor confidence.

However, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon with Grayscale’s proposal for the first U.S. Cardano ETF. If approved, this ETF could provide regulated exposure and attract institutional interest, potentially shifting the tide for ADA. The approval of such an ETF could offer a crucial lifeline for investor sentiment, which has been waning in recent months.

On-chain metrics reveal a sharp decline in Cardano’s 24-hour active addresses, dropping from around 24,000 to under 18,000 by June 21. This significant decrease in user activity is a concerning indicator, especially during a price downturn. Despite recent upgrades, user participation did not surge, highlighting a growing disconnect between ecosystem expansion and retail engagement. This metric’s decline aligns with the ongoing price trend, suggesting lackluster demand during network evolution.

At the time of press, Cardano is trading at $0.5590, down 1.02% on the day and 3.81% over the past week. The broader sentiment remains cautious as ADA hovers between key levels, with $0.5235 acting as immediate support and $0.5989 to $0.6533 as resistance zones. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.65 suggests near-neutral momentum, while the Bollinger Bands indicate pressure. If the selling trend continues, ADA may revisit the $0.52 bearish target. Conversely, a bullish breakout above $0.59 could open room to test $0.64, especially if ETF optimism gains traction and on-chain participation improves.

In summary, Cardano is facing a confidence crisis, with a significant decline in ADA's price and on-chain activity. The proposed Grayscale ETF offers a potential lifeline, but the future of ADA will depend on renewed investor interest and on-chain participation. The current price levels and technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, with key support and resistance levels to watch closely.