Cardano's (ADA) Bearish Momentum: Whale Selling, Open Interest Divergence, and Retail Sentiment

Cardano (ADA) has entered a critical juncture in late 2025, marked by conflicting signals from whale activity, open interest trends, and retail investor sentiment. While macro-level selling pressure from large holders has intensified, retail inflows and institutional confidence in the blockchain's long-term roadmap suggest a complex interplay of bearish and bullish forces.

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Whale Selling Pressure: A Double-Edged Sword

Whale activity has been a dominant force shaping ADA's price dynamics. Over 530 million ADA were sold within a 48-hour window in late September 2025, followed by another 180 million ADA offloaded in October, valued at over $120 million, according to The Coin Republic. This selling pressure has flooded the market with additional supply, stalling ADA's price recovery and pushing it below the $0.66 support level, as reported by CoinCentral. However, not all whale behavior is bearish. Between October 12 and 14, large holders accumulated 200 million ADA, increasing wallet balances from 1.50 billion to 1.59 billion tokens for wallets holding over 1 billion ADA, according to The Currency Analytics. This accumulation, valued at roughly $140 million at $0.70 per ADA, suggests some whales view the current price as a buying opportunity amid retail pessimism.

The conflicting whale activity—selling versus accumulation—has created a tug-of-war in the market. For instance, while one report highlighted 350 million ADA sold in a week (equivalent to $245 million), another noted a 51% drop in selling pressure as measured by the Spent Coins Age Band metric, as reported by Bankless Times. This divergence underscores the uncertainty surrounding ADA's short-term trajectory.

Open Interest Trends: Mixed Signals for Speculative Momentum

Open interest data for ADA futures has painted a similarly ambiguous picture. On October 8, 2025, open interest surged to $1.57 billion, a stark increase from $300 million in early 2024, according to CoinEdition. This growth initially signaled heightened speculative activity and institutional confidence. However, by mid-October, open interest had declined to $1.54 billion, with options volume dropping by over 90%—a bearish indicator of waning trader participation, as noted by Crypto Basic.

Historically, open interest levels above $1.2 billion have acted as a medium-term support, while levels near $1.8 billion have served as resistance, often triggering liquidations (CoinEdition reported this pattern). The recent pullback to $1.54 billion suggests traders are becoming cautious, particularly as ADA struggles to break above $0.80. Analysts warn that sustained open interest below $1.5 billion could signal a shift in momentum, potentially pushing ADA toward $0.60 if the $0.66 support fails, a dynamic also described by CoinCentral.

Retail vs.

Institutional Dynamics: A Precarious Balance

Retail investor sentiment has turned bearish, with a bullish-to-bearish commentary ratio of 1.5:1—the lowest in five months, according to CoinDesk. This shift coincides with whale selling sprees, as smaller traders exit positions in frustration. However, retail inflows have reached a three-month high, indicating residual buying interest (CoinCentral reported this inflow uptick). This dichotomy mirrors historical patterns where retail pessimism precedes price bottoms, allowing whales to accumulate at discounted levels (CoinDesk analysis described similar past patterns).

Institutional confidence, meanwhile, remains mixed. While open interest surges suggest some institutional participation, the decline in futures trading activity and the broader market's 45% gain over the past month highlight diverging views (CoinEdition discussed these contrasts). The Plomin hard fork, set to bring full governance to Cardano's mainnet, is a key long-term catalyst. Analysts argue that this upgrade could position ADA for robust decentralized operations, but short-term risks persist if the price falls below $1 (as CoinEdition has noted).

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in a Polarized Market

Cardano's current environment reflects a tug-of-war between bearish whale selling, declining open interest, and resilient retail demand. The price's ability to hold above $0.66 will be critical in determining whether the bearish momentum continues or gives way to a rebound toward $0.69 and $0.75, a scenario CoinCentral has highlighted. Investors must also monitor the Plomin hard fork's progress, as it could unlock new utility and attract institutional capital in the long term.

For now, ADA remains in a consolidation phase, with open interest and whale activity serving as key barometers. Traders should brace for volatility, as conflicting signals from large holders and speculative traders create a high-risk, high-reward scenario.