Cardano’s $1 Hurdle: Will Institutional Bet Signal a New Era?

Record Cardano futures volume has surged to a five-month high of $6.96 billion, signaling increased institutional and retail interest in the cryptocurrency. This jump, observed on August 14, marks the highest level since March 2025, according to data from Glassnode. Previously, ADA futures volume had remained between $1 billion and $4 billion, but the recent spike indicates a notable shift in market activity [1]. Analysts such as Ali Martinez have highlighted that this surge in trading volume coincided with ADA's breakout above key resistance levels. The price climbed to $0.98, surpassing a trendline after weeks of consolidation, and is now testing the $1.00 psychological barrier [2].

Technical analysis further supports bullish momentum for ADA. The price has broken out of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart, a pattern that often signals an upward continuation. For the trend to remain positive, the price must close above $1.00, which could lead to a price target of $2.12 [1]. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) has risen from 41 to 59, indicating increasing bullish momentum on higher time frames. Analyst Clifton Fx has identified a bull flag pattern, with a potential target of $1.80 if the breakout is confirmed by a three-day candlestick close above $1.00 and a retest of that level as new support [1].

The surge in futures trading volume is accompanied by growing institutional interest. Grayscale recently established a Cardano Trust in Delaware, fueling speculation around a potential spot ETF approval. According to Polymarket, the probability of a Cardano ETF approval increased to 81% on August 12 from 59% on August 6, reflecting heightened expectations. If approved, an ETF could significantly boost ADA's market appeal and liquidity [2]. This aligns with broader market optimism, as the altcoin season gains traction and investors diversify into alternative cryptocurrencies.

Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem is also showing signs of expansion, with total value locked (TVL) increasing by 56% to $423.6 million, the highest since March. This growth has historically correlated with ADA price rallies, suggesting that continued TVL expansion could reinforce bullish sentiment. For instance, a 271% rise in TVL during November and December 2024 coincided with a 300% increase in ADA price [1]. Meanwhile, whale activity indicates strong long-term confidence in ADA, with $25.94 million in ADA outflows from exchanges, reducing circulating supply and potentially supporting price appreciation [2].

South Korea has emerged as a key market for ADA, with the ADA/KRW trading pair surpassing ADA/USD in volume. This shift highlights the growing global appeal of Cardano and suggests increased retail participation, particularly in regions with high trading activity. As the altcoin market continues to gain momentum, ADA's technical indicators, institutional developments, and DeFi growth position it as a standout performer in the cryptocurrency landscape [2].

Source:

[1] How High Can Cardano Price Go Beyond $1? (https://cointelegraph.com/news/cardano-massive-rally-one-dollar-breaks-how-high-can-ada-price-go)

[2] ADA on Fire: Futures Volume Explodes to 5-Month High Amid Breakout Buzz (https://cryptopotato.com/ada-on-fire-futures-volume-explodes-to-5-month-high-amid-breakout-buzz/)