Cardano's $0.70 Support: A Make-or-Break Moment for Bulls Amid Whale Selling and Bearish EMAs

Cardano (ADA) has entered a critical juncture in its price action, with the $0.70 level emerging as a pivotal battleground for bulls and bears. As the cryptocurrency trades in a narrow range of $0.80–$0.83 in early September 2025, the market is fixated on whether ADA can hold above this psychological threshold—or collapse into a deeper correction. The confluence of whale selling, bearish EMA trends, and weak on-chain fundamentals has created a high-stakes scenario, where short-term volatility could either catalyze a rebound or accelerate a breakdown.

Technical Weakness and EMA Divergence

ADA’s recent performance has been marred by a breakdown below key exponential moving averages (EMAs), including the EMA55 and EMA89, which have historically acted as dynamic support levels [1]. This technical divergence has amplified bearish sentiment, as the price now trades in a falling wedge pattern—a consolidation structure often preceding a sharp directional move [2]. While a breakout above $0.85 could reignite bullish momentum, a failure to hold above $0.756 would likely trigger a retest of the $0.70 level, with further downside risks to $0.57–$0.51 [2].

Technical indicators corroborate this fragile equilibrium. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near neutral-to-bearish territory, while the MACD shows flat momentum, signaling a lack of conviction in either direction [2]. For bulls, the MA200 at $0.59 represents a last-resort support, but a breach below this would likely extend the correction to $0.51 [2].

Whale Selling and On-Chain Deterioration

The bearish narrative is further reinforced by aggressive whale selling. Large holders have offloaded approximately 30 million ADA tokens in recent weeks, with $170 million in outflows recorded from major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase [1]. These outflows, coupled with a declining DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) of $400 million and falling active addresses, underscore weak ecosystem growth and utility [1]. Such on-chain metrics suggest that ADA’s recent relative outperformance against other altcoins may be a temporary anomaly rather than a sign of sustained strength.

Meanwhile, short positions totaling $109 million cluster near $0.99, creating a potential short squeeze if ADA manages to break above $0.85 [3]. However, this scenario hinges on stabilizing whale activity and a reversal of the current bearish momentum.

Scenarios and Turning Points

The coming weeks will likely hinge on ADA’s response to the $0.80 support level. A short squeeze in the $0.82–$0.85 zone could propel the price back toward $1.00, but this would require a cessation of whale selling and a surge in retail buying [3]. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.70 would validate the bear case, with the MA200 at $0.59 acting as a final line of defense [2].

Long-term bulls argue that ADA’s resilience above the EMA55, EMA89, and MA200 for seven consecutive weeks indicates underlying strength [1]. If the price avoids a breakdown below $0.756, some analysts project a near-term target of $0.95–$1.00, with optimistic scenarios envisioning a rally to $4.50 under favorable conditions [3]. However, these projections depend on resolving the current on-chain and whale-driven headwinds.

Conclusion

Cardano’s $0.70 support level is more than a technical benchmark—it is a litmus test for the broader market’s confidence in ADA’s fundamentals and utility. While the immediate risks are skewed to the downside, a successful defense of this level could unlock a short-term rally fueled by a short squeeze or renewed institutional interest. However, without a reversal in whale behavior and on-chain metrics, the bear case remains intact. Investors should closely monitor ADA’s interaction with $0.80 and $0.756 in the coming days, as these price points will likely determine the next chapter in Cardano’s 2025 narrative.

Source:
[1] Whales Dump 30M ADA as $0.70 Becomes Make-or-Break Moment for Bulls [https://www.ainvest.com/news/whales-dump-30m-ada-0-70-break-moment-bulls-2509/]
[2] Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction and Analysis for September 3, 2025 [https://coinedition.com/cardano-ada-price-prediction-for-september-3-2025/]
[3] Cardano ADA Price: Massive Whale Withdrawals Could Signal Possible Short Squeeze Rally [https://coincentral.com/cardano-ada-price-massive-whale-withdrawals-could-signal-possible-short-squeeze-rally/]