Cardano's $0.60 Support Test and Whale Accumulation: Is This the Bottom?

Cardano (ADA) has been a focal point for on-chain analysts and institutional observers in October 2025, as the cryptocurrency consolidates between $0.65 and $0.70. The $0.60 support level, a critical psychological and technical threshold, has become a battleground for whale activity and retail sentiment. With ADA's price action forming symmetrical triangle and falling wedge patterns, the question looms: Is this the bottom for Cardano, or merely a pause in its long-term narrative?

On-Chain Whale Behavior: A Tale of Two Sides

On-chain data reveals a mixed but telling story. While some large holders have offloaded over 350 million ADA in recent weeks, others have accumulated 140–200 million tokens, valued at approximately $100–$140 million, according to a Bitcoinist analysis. This duality underscores a classic accumulation phase, where short-term sellers are offset by long-term buyers. Analyst MMBTrader notes that such whale buying "signals ADA could be ready for its next leg up past $1," as reported by Bitcoinist. The key takeaway is that institutional and sophisticated investors are treating ADA as a value play, not a speculative asset.

The Spent Coins Age Band metric further reinforces this narrative. A 36% decline in this indicator suggests reduced selling pressure and growing dormancy, a hallmark of accumulation phases, according to a BeInCrypto analysis. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow and RSI metrics show strong momentum, with renewed buying pressure concentrated near $0.63–$0.64, as noted in a Coinotag article. These signals collectively point to a market where sellers are losing control to buyers.

Technical Reversal Signals: Symmetrical Triangles and Wedges

ADA's price chart is a masterclass in technical analysis. The symmetrical triangle pattern on the 12-hour chart, spanning $0.60 to $0.90, indicates consolidation ahead of a potential breakout. Historically, such patterns often precede sharp price movements, with a 60–70% success rate in bullish scenarios, per a Coinotag piece. For ADA to confirm an upward move, it must break above $0.80–$0.90, with targets at $1.10 and $1.70.

The falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart adds another layer of intrigue. This formation, with $0.65 as immediate support and $0.74 as key resistance, suggests a possible bullish reversal if ADA can close above $0.74, as Bitcoinist reports. Analysts project that a breakout here could align with the 50-day exponential moving average, propelling ADA toward $0.80–$0.86, according to Bitcoinist.

NVT Score and On-Chain Validation

While direct NVT score data for ADA remains elusive in recent quarters, indirect metrics validate the bullish case. The integration of the x402 standard for AI-driven blockchain payments has enhanced ADA's utility, driving transaction volume and network value, as Coinotag reports. This aligns with the broader thesis that ADA's price is no longer solely a function of speculative trading but also real-world adoption.

Moreover, ADA's ability to hold above $0.60 has preserved its ascending channel and technical structure. Charting Guy emphasizes that "as long as the uptrend holds, ADA remains fine," with higher lows forming since 2023, according to an XT blog post. A breakdown below $0.57, however, would invalidate this bullish setup, per a Brave New Coin insight.

The Road Ahead: Catalysts and Risks

The coming months will hinge on two key catalysts: the Grayscale ADA ETF decision and the Cardano Summit in Berlin. Both events could inject liquidity and institutional credibility into ADA's ecosystem. Conversely, a failure to break above $0.74 or a breakdown below $0.60 could reignite bearish momentum, pushing ADA toward $0.50, according to a CCN analysis.

For now, the on-chain data and technical patterns suggest that ADA's $0.60 support level is holding firm. Whale accumulation, coupled with favorable chart patterns, paints a picture of a market preparing for a breakout. Investors should monitor volume spikes and whale activity closely, as these will be the first signals of a potential trend reversal.