Used Car Prices Rise Amid Tariff Disruption: Wholesale Prices Surge 6.3% YoY, Retail Demand Remains Strong.

Wholesale used car prices in the US have risen for the 10th consecutive month, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index up 6.3% year-over-year and 1.6% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Prices remained 5.1% higher year-over-year despite a 1.1% dip from May. Solid retail demand and a tightening supply of used vehicles are driving the market's resilience.

Wholesale used car prices in the US have risen for the 10th consecutive month, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) climbing to 208.5, a 6.3% year-over-year increase and a 1.6% month-over-month rise on a seasonally adjusted basis [1]. Despite a 1.1% dip from May, prices remained 5.1% higher year-over-year. This trend reflects strong retail demand and a tightening supply of used vehicles, which are driving the market's resilience.

According to Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, "Wholesale appreciation trends have been more volatile over Q2 as tariffs really impacted new sales and supply, which impacted the used marketplace as well." The Manheim index has generally been rising since last June, and the second quarter typically sees the strongest changes for the year as the 'spring bounce' comes to an end [1].

The used-vehicle market continues to demonstrate remarkable stability and resilience, even as the broader automotive landscape experiences shifts in pricing and supply. While the new-vehicle segment has seen more pronounced swings, the used market has remained consistently strong. "Historically, the used market has been incredibly consistent; but the pandemic disrupted much of that consistency, and starting in mid-2020, we saw much more volatility than we’d normally expect," said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. "What we are seeing in the Manheim Index over the course of the first half of this year suggests we could finally be out of that pattern. Demand has remained steady, but the real change has been in supply. With the acceleration of the new-vehicle market in early Q2, an uptick in trade-ins naturally followed, increasing used inventory. The change in supply-side dynamics is driving the return to normal for the used-vehicle market, and this stability is what we expect to see in the second half of 2025" [1].

The used-EV market is also showing significant gains compared to last year, with wholesale EV values experiencing steep declines in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024. Since then, EV values have rebounded, with year-over-year appreciation trends outpacing those of non-EVs for the past three months. In June, EV values were up 12.1% year over year, while non-EVs rose by 5.6%. Month over month, EV values increased by 1.5%, slightly ahead of the 1.4% gain for non-EVs [1].

Retail used-vehicle sales dipped in June, with sales down 1.5% compared to May but up 2% year-over-year. The average retail listing price for a used vehicle increased 0.3% over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, new-vehicle sales declined sharply from May, with a 4.2% drop year-over-year and a 14.2% month-over-month decrease [1].

Cox Automotive has revised its 2025 forecasts for the used market, projecting that used-vehicle sales will reach 20.1 million in 2025, a 1.2% increase compared to 2024. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is now projected to be 1.8% higher year over year in December 2025 [1].

References:
[1] https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/june-2025-muvvi/