Capitalizing on the 2025 Holiday Shopping Surge: A Strategic ETF Playbook

The 2025 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a defining moment for e-commerce and omnichannel retail, driven by shifting consumer behaviors, technological innovation, and demographic trends. As retailers adapt to a post-pandemic landscape marked by cautious spending and rising tariffs, investors are increasingly turning to diversified retail ETFs to capture the growth potential of this evolving sector. This article outlines a strategic playbook for leveraging these funds to capitalize on the 2025 holiday surge, supported by data from industry reports and market performance.

The 2025 Holiday Retail Landscape: E-Commerce and Omnichannel Momentum

According to a report by Bridget™ AI, e-commerce sales during the 2025 holiday season are projected to grow by 7% to 9%, reaching $305 billion to $310.7 billion from November to January. Mobile shopping continues to dominate, with 56.1% of online sales expected to occur via smartphones, underscoring the need for retailers to optimize mobile-first experiences. Meanwhile, Buy Now, Pay Later options are set to facilitate $20.2 billion in purchases, with 52% of shoppers citing BNPL as a key factor in their buying decisions.

A critical demographic driving this shift is Gen Z, who account for over 55% of their holiday apparel spending through omnichannel experiences-far exceeding their online-only activity according to JPMorgan. This generation's preference for integrated shopping journeys, combined with their tendency to shop earlier and prioritize experiential retail, is forcing traditional retailers to invest in AI-driven personalization and seamless cross-channel logistics according to Digital Commerce 360. Deloitte's 2025 holiday retail survey cautions that overall sales growth may slow to 2.9%–3.4% due to inflation and consumer caution, highlighting the importance of focusing on high-growth subsectors like e-commerce.

Strategic ETFs for E-Commerce and Omnichannel Growth

Investors seeking exposure to this dynamic sector can turn to diversified retail ETFs that target e-commerce and omnichannel innovation. The Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY), for instance, has delivered a cumulative return of 198% since its 2016 inception according to Amplify's blog. With a portfolio of over 80 global e-commerce companies-including mid- and small-cap firms-IBUY offers broad access to the sector beyond the dominance of megacaps like Amazon. Similarly, the Global X E-Commerce ETF (EBIZ) has surged 18% year-to-date in 2025 according to MarketBeat, focusing on companies across the e-commerce ecosystem, from platform providers to logistics and payment processors.

These funds are well-positioned to benefit from the 2025 holiday trends. For example, Walmart's 28% year-over-year e-commerce sales growth-driven by its Walmart+ membership program-demonstrates how traditional retailers are leveraging digital tools to compete. Meanwhile, Amazon's continued dominance in AI-powered shopping assistants and same-day delivery underscores the sector's technological edge. By investing in ETFs like IBUY and EBIZ, investors gain diversified exposure to both established players and emerging innovators in this space.

The Expanding Holiday Window: Q5 as a Growth Catalyst

The holiday season is no longer confined to December. Retailers are now prioritizing Q5 (December 26 to mid-January) as a critical growth period, with U.S. online sales projected to exceed $253 billion from November 1 to December 31-a 5.3% increase from 2024. This extended timeline creates opportunities for retailers to deploy AI-driven marketing and inventory management tools, further boosting efficiency and customer retention. ETFs that include companies specializing in these technologies-such as data analytics firms or cloud infrastructure providers-stand to outperform in this environment.

Conclusion: A Data-Driven Approach to Retail Investing

The 2025 holiday season presents a unique inflection point for e-commerce and omnichannel retail. While macroeconomic headwinds persist, the sector's resilience-driven by Gen Z's spending habits, BNPL adoption, and AI innovation-makes it a compelling investment opportunity. By allocating to diversified ETFs like IBUY and EBIZ, investors can hedge against individual stock risks while capturing the broader growth trajectory of a sector poised for long-term transformation.