Capital One Rises 3.17% to $214.20 as Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

Capital One Financial (COF) closed at $214.20 on October 14, 2025, rising 3.17% and marking two consecutive daily gains totaling 5.78%. This upward momentum follows a sharp -3.91% decline on October 10, suggesting volatile near-term price action. Below is a technical assessment using multiple indicators.
Candlestick Theory
The October 10 session formed a long bearish candle closing near $202.49 after a wide range ($202.02-$212.44), establishing immediate support near $202. The subsequent two bullish candles reclaimed this level, confirming resilience. A key resistance zone emerges at $216.73-$217 (October 14 high and August 12 peak), while the $202-$204 area now functions as critical support. The rebound from $202 resembles a bullish piercing line pattern, indicating potential trend reversal confirmation if the price sustains above $210.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (near $210) recently crossed below the 100-day average (near $215), signaling weakening intermediate momentum. However, the price has reclaimed the 50-day MA during the latest rally. The long-term 200-day MA (approximately $195) maintains an upward slope, affirming the primary bullish trend. A sustained move above the 100-day MA would strengthen the recovery case, while failure risks retesting the 200-day support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover emerging in negative territory, with the histogram transitioning from contraction to expansion – a nascent momentum shift. The KDJ oscillator exited oversold conditions (K=18, D=15) on October 10 and now trends toward overbought (K=68, D=55). This alignment suggests strengthening upside momentum, though proximity to overbought territory (KDJ >80) warrants caution for near-term consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply during the October 10 sell-off (width: ~$10 vs. 20-day average of ~$15), signaling reduced volatility and indecision. The subsequent breakout above the middle band ($208) coincided with volume expansion, validating bullish momentum. Current price trades near the upper band ($217), which may act as immediate resistance. Band expansion during the rally supports continuation potential if volatility persists.
Volume-Price Relationship
The October 14 rally occurred on 3.99M shares – above the 20-day average (3.55M) – confirming buyer conviction. Notably, the preceding downswing (October 10) saw even higher volume (4.64M), indicating distribution. The current advance lacks equivalent volume intensity, introducing sustainability concerns. A close above $217 with volume exceeding 4.5M shares would solidify bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded from near-oversold territory (35.6) to 58.7, reflecting improving momentum without extreme overbought pressure. This aligns with price recovery but remains below the 70 threshold that typically signals overextension. The slope suggests room for additional upside, though divergence would emerge if prices stall while RSI approaches 70.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the June 20, 2025 low ($198.37) and September 29 peak ($226.23) as anchor points, the recent pullback to $202.49 aligns precisely with the 61.8% retracement level ($202). This Fibonacci support confluence likely contributed to the rebound. Key upside retracement levels are $214.23 (23.6%) and $218.50 (38.2%). The price has already challenged the 23.6% resistance, with the 38.2% level serving as the next technical hurdle.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Strong confluence exists at $202-$204, where Fibonacci support, the October 10 low, and the 50-day MA converge – a critical bull/bear inflection zone. The MACD crossover, KDJ upturn, and RSI reversal collectively validate the rebound. However, volume divergence persists: declining volume during the rally versus elevated volume during declines. This suggests cautious participation that needs resolution through either volume-backed breakout above $217 or a retest of $204 with volume drying up.