Cantor Fitzgerald is bullish on the Russell 2000 index and expects a Trump victory to be bullish for small caps

U.S. financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald is bullish on the Russell 2000 index, saying it believes the chances of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump winning the November U.S. presidential election are higher than the market expects, and that a Trump victory would be good for small-cap stocks.

An opinion poll released on Tuesday showed Democrat presidential candidate Harris and Trump were neck and neck, with both candidates having 48% of the vote. A poll released last month showed Harris leading Trump by five percentage points, with 49% of the vote to his 44%.

Cantor Fitzgerald said small-cap stocks usually do well in the run-up to elections, and as support for Trump has been building, the market has been looking forward to it. The company's chief strategist, Eric Johnston, said the Russell 2000 index has been "the laggard" but now was a "buying opportunity". He noted from historical data that the index has had a very pronounced swing in the run-up to elections, with gains of more than 6.5% in four of the past 11 election years, and a 12% or more gain by year-end.

Of course, Eric Johnston also acknowledged that each election year has its own story, but the data showed the potential for a rebound in the Russell 2000 index was not to be sniffed at. He was optimistic that if Trump kept his lead, small-cap stocks would have a "spring" in them. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump had 302 electoral votes in the non-swing states, while Democrat candidate Harris had 236.

Cantor Fitzgerald said if Trump won, it would be good for domestic companies for reasons including lower taxes, similar or more spending, less financial and overall small-business regulation, and more overall certainty, which encouraged more risk-taking in the stock market and economy, and boosted consumer confidence.

Cantor Fitzgerald added that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) would become a more widely traded part of the market, with money leaving large-cap/long growth stocks and going into stocks with various characteristics. The company viewed inflation-leveraged assets such as bitcoin and gold as beneficiaries of a Trump victory.