Canadian Natural Resources Jumps 3.25% to $31.14 Amid Technical Breakout

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) rose 3.25% to close at $31.14 on August 22, 2025, marking its third consecutive daily gain with a cumulative 6.24% advance over this period. This analysis examines the technical context of this movement.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action formed three consecutive white candles with progressively higher highs ($29.79 on Aug 20, $30.19 on Aug 21, $31.24 on Aug 22) and closes near session highs, suggesting sustained buying pressure. Key support now resides at $29.30-29.43 (recent consolidation zone and August 19 low), while resistance is observed at $31.34-31.44 (early August closing prices) and the $31.87 swing high from August 7. The breakout above $30.20 resistance on above-average volume validates bullish conviction.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately $31.50) is currently being tested, with the price closing just below this level. The 100-day SMA ($31.20) was recently reclaimed, while the 200-day SMA ($30.80) maintains a positive slope beneath the price. This configuration suggests an improving medium-term trend, though sustained trade above the 50-day SMA may be necessary to confirm bullish momentum. The alignment of all key moving averages below the price reinforces the broader uptrend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD exhibits a bullish crossover with its signal line emerging from negative territory, corroborating improving momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows the %K line (83) and %D line (76) crossing above the 80 threshold, indicating overbought conditions. While this reflects strong near-term momentum, the KDJ's position warrants monitoring for potential exhaustion signals.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded as price breached the upper Bollinger Band ($30.80) on August 22 during its 3.25% surge, typically signaling strong directional momentum. This follows a period of band contraction in late July, suggesting the resolution of compression through upside acceleration. Sustained trading outside the upper band may indicate an overextended move short-term.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume increased progressively during the three-day advance (5.47M, 4.64M, 6.38M shares), confirming institutional participation in the breakout. The highest volume occurred on the strongest gain day (Aug 22), supporting the sustainability of the move. This volume profile contrasts with the lower volumes observed during the preceding consolidation, validating the significance of the current advance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI climbed to 68, approaching overbought territory (70 threshold) but retaining upward momentum. While not yet signaling extreme conditions, this elevation after the rapid ascent suggests near-term consolidation may precede further gains. Historically, RSI values above 70 during July rallies preceded brief pullbacks, warranting vigilance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the June 20 high ($33.38) and August 19 low ($29.31) as anchor points, the recent advance has surpassed the 38.2% retracement level ($30.86) and is testing the 50% level at $31.35. Confluence exists at this Fibonacci level with the early August closing prices ($31.34-31.44), creating a significant resistance zone. A decisive close above $31.45 may trigger momentum toward the 61.8% retracement at $31.83.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Notable confluence exists around the $31.35-31.45 zone, where the 50-day SMA, 50% Fibonacci level, and early August resistance converge. The price breakout coincides with bullish MACD crossover and rising volume, strengthening this resistance test. However, a minor divergence exists as KDJ signals overbought conditions while RSI remains below its warning threshold, suggesting near-term consolidation risk within the broader uptrend. The alignment of volume, moving averages, and MACD supports continuation patterns if key resistance is decisively overcome.