Canadian Natural Resources Extends Rally With 7.18% Six-Day Gain On Technical Breakout

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) rose 1.22% in the most recent session, extending its gains to six consecutive days with a cumulative 7.18% advance over this period. This sustained uptick establishes a bullish near-term trajectory and transitions into a comprehensive technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a sequence of white candles with progressive gains, forming a bullish staircase pattern. The current rally has overcome resistance near $32.50 (previous congestion zone in early June) and faces immediate resistance at the June 12 high of $33.15. Support emerges at $32.47 (recent session low) with a more substantial floor at $31.58 – the swing low preceding this advance. This structure suggests bullish continuation if prices hold above the $32.50 pivot.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($31.25) crossed above both the 100-day ($30.80) and 200-day ($31.10) averages this week, confirming a bullish golden crossover. Current price ($33.13) trades decisively above all three key MAs, with the 50-day providing dynamic support. The alignment of shorter averages above longer-term ones indicates strengthening intermediate momentum, though the 200-day MA's flat slope warrants monitoring for trend sustainability.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains in positive territory with both signal line and MACD trending upward since late May, confirming bullish momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillators show %K (85) and %D (82) in overbought territory after peaking near 90 last week. While this divergence between MACD’s steady ascent and KDJ’s elevated levels doesn’t yet signal reversal, it suggests near-term consolidation risks as buyers become exhausted.
Bollinger Bands
Price hugs the upper band ($33.00) following a volatility expansion from the June 5 squeeze (bands contracted to 0.9% width). The current bandwidth remains moderately wide at 1.8%, suggesting sustained directional energy. Closure above the upper band for three consecutive sessions may foreshadow a mean-reversion pullback toward the 20-day midline ($32.20), though the absence of bearish candles tempers immediate reversal concerns.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains occurred on above-average volume (16.6M shares vs. 30-day avg 5.9M), validating bullish conviction. However, volume has sequentially declined during the six-day rally – a negative divergence that questions sustainability. Notable accumulation occurred near $30.50 (early June) and $28.00 (April lows), establishing these as high-volume support zones should profit-taking emerge.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (76) entered overbought territory after accelerating from 65 a week ago. While the extreme reading may warn of exhaustion, its upward trajectory and absence of bearish divergence reduce reliability as a standalone reversal signal. Historical precedents show CNQ can maintain RSI >75 for multiple weeks during strong trends, but prudent risk management would monitor for reversal patterns at these levels.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the March-April swing high ($34.21) to swing low ($25.14) shows the current rally breached the 61.8% retracement ($30.80) decisively. The 78.6% level ($33.40) now serves as immediate resistance, with confluence from the March 25 high ($33.42). A sustained break above $33.40 would open the path to test the full swing high at $34.21, while pullbacks may seek support at the 50% retracement ($29.60).
Confluence & Divergence
Significant confluence appears at $33.40, aligning Fib resistance, March swing highs, and upper Bollinger Band. Bullish consensus is reinforced by MACD and moving average alignment. Primary divergence emerges between declining volume during the rally and rising prices, alongside overextended RSI/KDJ readings. While the technical structure remains constructive, these divergences increase vulnerability to consolidation near $33.40 resistance. Probabilistically, a breach above $33.15 with sustained volume would signal continuation to $34.20, whereas failure below $32.47 may trigger profit-taking toward $31.60 support.