Canadian Natural Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Expenses Decrease Y/Y

Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 59 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents. However, the bottom line decreased from 66 cents in the year-ago quarter. The underperformance can be attributed to lower realized oil and natural gas liquid (NGL) prices.

Total revenues of $6.9 billion increased from $6.8 billion in the prior-year period, fueled by increased production volumes. Additionally, the figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.6 billion.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Canadian Natural Resources Limited price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Canadian Natural Resources Limited Quote

On March 5, CNQ’s board of directors approved a 6.4% increase to its quarterly cash dividend to 62.5 Canadian cents per common share. The dividend will be payable on April 7, 2026, to its shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 20. This marks the company's continued commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

This commitment is further evidenced by CNQ's impressive track record of growing and sustaining its dividend for 26 years, boasting a remarkable 20% annual growth rate over that period.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company returned around C$2.7 billion directly to its shareholders. This included C$1.2 billion in dividends, C$0.3 billion from the repurchase and C$1.2 billion through reduction in the company's net debt.

The oil and gas exploration and production company delivered strong financial results in the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighted by net earnings of approximately C$5.3 billion. Furthermore, CNQ reported robust adjusted net earnings from operations of approximately C$1.7 billion. This strong performance was also reflected in CNQ's cash flow. Cash flows from operating activities totaled approximately C$3.8 billion, and adjusted funds flow also reached approximately C$3.8 billion.

Up to Dec. 31, 2025, the Calgary-based company delivered significant returns to its shareholders, amounting to approximately C$9 billion. This total was composed of C$4.9 billion in dividends, C$1.4 billion through the repurchase and C$2.7 billion in net debt reduction.

CNQ’s Q4 Production & Prices

Canadian Natural reported quarterly production of 1,658,681 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), up 13% from the prior-year quarter’s level. The figure beat our estimate of 1,646,976Boe/d.

The oil and NGL output (accounting for around 73% of total volumes) increased to 1,215,364barrels per day (Bbl/d) from 1,090,002 Bbl/d recorded a year ago. The figure beat our estimate of 1,202,722Bbl/d.

Natural gas volumes totaled 2,660 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), up 16.5% from the 2,283 MMcf/d recorded in the year-ago period. However, the figure lagged our estimate of 2,696 MMcf/d.

Natural gas production in North America reached 2,657 MMcf/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with 2,273 MMcf/d in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, the figure missed our estimate of 2,693 MMcf/d.

Exploration and production activities in North America, not including thermal in situ methods, reported an average output of 294,315 Bbl/d. This indicates a 24% year-over-year increase during this quarter. Meanwhile, thermal in situ production volume decreased to 266,308 Bbl/d from 271,551 Bbl/d recorded a year ago. The figure also missed our model projection of 276,231 Bbl/d.

The Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading operations in North America reported an average output of 619,901 Bbl/d of synthetic crude oil. This represented a 15.9% increase from the prior-year quarter’s levels of 534,631 Bbl/d.

The realized natural gas price increased 43% to C$2.89 per thousand cubic feet from the year-ago level of C$2.02. The realized oil and NGL price decreased 14.4% to C$64.42 per barrel from C$75.22 in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The company also achieved industry-leading operating costs for Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading, amounting to C$21.84 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

On Nov. 1, 2025, Canadian Natural closed the AOSP asset swap with Shell and now owns and operates 100% of the Albian oil sands mines and associated reserves. The deal adds 31,000 bbl/d of stable bitumen output to the company’s Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading portfolio.

CNQ’s Q4 Costs & Capital Expenditure

Total expenses in the quarter were C$2.8 billion, significantly down from C$7.9 billion recorded in the year-ago period. The decrease was mainly backed by gains on acquisitions, dispositions and remeasurements by the company.

Capital expenditure totaled C$1.2 billion compared with C$10.3 billion a year ago.

CNQ’s Balance Sheet

As of Dec. 31, 2025, CNQ had cash and cash equivalents worth C$673 million and long-term debt of approximately C$16.2 billion, with a debt to capitalization of about 26.7%.

CNQ’s 2026 Guidance

On Dec. 16, 2025, CNQ issued its 2026 budget but updated some of its points in the fourth-quarter earnings. Its updated 2026 guidance reflects a focus on disciplined capital spending, production growth and operational efficiency. The company reduced its forecasted operating capital expenditures by approximately C$310 million to about C$5.99 billion, primarily driven by efficiency gains in development programs and the deferral of front-end engineering and design spending for the Jackpine mine expansion project at Albian amid regulatory uncertainty. Including acquisitions, total capital expenditures are expected to reach about $6.88 billion, reflecting roughly $765 million in asset purchases in the Peace River area of Alberta.

On the operational front, CNQ increased its 2026 production guidance to a range of 1,615-1,665 MBOE/d, up from the previous outlook of 1,590-1,650 MBOE/d, supported by recent acquisitions and ongoing development across its asset base. Production is expected to include 2,560-2,615 MMcf/d of natural gas and 1,188-1,229 Mbbl/d of total liquids, highlighting the company’s continued growth strategy across conventional E&P, thermal and oil sands mining operations.

CNQ currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Important Earnings at a Glance

While we have discussed CNQ’s fourth-quarter results in detail, let us take a look at three other key reports in this space.

Valero Energy Corporation VLO posted fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.82 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.22. The bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of 64 cents. VLO’s better-than-expected quarterly results can be mainly attributed to a surge in refining margins, higher ethanol production volumes and lower total cost of sales.

Valero Energy had cash and cash equivalents of $4.7 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. As of Dec. 31, 2025, the leading independent refiner and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products had total debt of $8.3 billion and finance lease obligations of $2.4 billion.

Baker Hughes Company BKR posted fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 78 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents. The bottom line also increased from the year-ago level of 70 cents. The strong quarterly results were primarily driven by solid performance from BKR’s Industrial & Energy Technology business segment.

Baker Hughes Company’s net capital expenditure in the fourth quarter was $321 million. As of Dec. 31, 2025, it had cash and cash equivalents of $3.7 billion. The Houston, TX-based oil and gas equipment and services provider had a long-term debt of $5.4 billion at the end of the reported quarter, with a debt-to-capitalization of 24.3%.

Halliburton Company HAL posted fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted net income per share of 69 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 54 cents. The outperformance primarily reflects successful cost reduction initiatives. However, HAL’s bottom line marginally fell from the year-ago adjusted profit of 70 cents due to softer activity in the North American region.

Halliburton reported fourth-quarter capital expenditure of $337 million, well below our projection of $390.4 million. As of Dec. 31, 2025, the Houston, TX-based oil and gas equipment and services provider had approximately $2.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and $7.2 billion in long-term debt, representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 40.5.

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