Why Canada's Energy and Pulp Sectors Are Strategic Bets Amid U.S. Tariff Volatility

The U.S.-Canada trade relationship has been a rollercoaster since the Trump administration's re-imposition of tariffs in 2025. Yet, amid this volatility, two sectors-energy and pulp-stand out as strategic investment opportunities. Their resilience stems from a combination of USMCA exemptions, low effective tariffs, and inelastic U.S. demand, which together create a buffer against trade tensions. For investors, these industries offer a rare blend of stability and long-term growth potential, even as broader trade uncertainties persist.

Energy: A Pillar of Resilience

Canada's energy exports to the U.S. have faced a 10% tariff since 2023, but this rate pales in comparison to the 50% levied on steel and aluminum. Crucially, most energy products qualify for USMCA exemptions, shielding them from higher duties. This has allowed the sector to maintain its dominance in U.S. markets, where Canadian crude oil accounts for over 40% of imports due to existing pipeline infrastructure and refinery preferences.

The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) initially drove a surge in 2024, but growth has since moderated. However, this slowdown reflects cyclical factors rather than structural weakness. The IMF has noted that Canada's economy, including its energy sector, has adapted more effectively to U.S. tariffs than anticipated, leveraging exemptions and supply chain adjustments. Even as reciprocal tariffs threaten to rise to 35% in August 2025, the U.S. remains heavily dependent on Canadian energy. For instance, the U.S. lacks the refining capacity to replace Canadian crude, which is critical for its transportation fuel needs. This inelastic demand ensures that energy exports will remain a cornerstone of Canada's trade resilience.

Pulp: Exemptions and Inelastic Demand

The pulp sector has fared even better. Under USMCA, market pulp from compliant producers faces 0% tariffs, while non-compliant goods are subject to 35% duties. This bifurcation has allowed Canadian producers to retain a significant share of the U.S. market, which imports over 60% of its pulp from Canada. The U.S. demand for Canadian pulp is inelastic due to limited domestic production capacity and the critical role of pulp in packaging and paper products.

In contrast, the aluminum and forestry sectors have faced sharper headwinds. U.S. tariffs on aluminum, which climbed to 50% in June 2025, have forced Canadian producers to adopt creative strategies, such as purchasing U.S. aluminum to avoid tariffs. While these adjustments highlight sectoral flexibility, they also underscore the vulnerability of industries without USMCA exemptions. The forestry sector, for example, saw a 30% drop in U.S. lumber exports in 2025 after new tariffs stacked on top of existing duties. Yet, even here, inelasticity persists: the U.S. remains short 3.2 BBF of operable lumber capacity, making it reliant on Canadian supply despite higher prices.

Strategic Investment Implications

For investors, the energy and pulp sectors represent asymmetric opportunities. Energy's infrastructure-driven dominance and pulp's tariff-protected position create moats against trade volatility. The RBC report on aluminum's resilience, for instance, highlights how high global demand can offset short-term production declines. Similarly, the pulp sector's exemption structure ensures that even modest tariff hikes will have limited impact. The aluminum and forestry sectors, while more exposed, offer lessons in adaptability. Canadian firms have demonstrated agility in navigating tariffs, from supply chain reconfigurations to government-backed subsidies. These adjustments suggest that even vulnerable sectors can recover if supported by policy and market demand.

Conclusion

Canada's energy and pulp sectors are not immune to U.S. trade pressures, but their structural advantages-USMCA exemptions, low effective tariffs, and inelastic demand-make them uniquely resilient. As the Trump administration's tariff policies continue to evolve, these industries will likely outperform peers in more exposed sectors. For investors seeking stability amid uncertainty, they represent a compelling long-term bet.