Canaan (CAN) Surges 21% on Record Bitcoin Mining Output and Strategic Expansion

Summary
• Canaan (CAN) rockets 21.05% to $1.84, hitting a six-month high amid a record 92 bitcoins mined in September 2025.
• Landmark U.S. order for 50,000 Avalon A15 Pro miners secures Canaan’s largest deal in three years.
• Deployed hashrate climbs to 9.30 EH/s, with a 20 MW Texas wind-powered mining partnership with Soluna.
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Canaan’s explosive intraday rally reflects a confluence of operational milestones and strategic momentum. The stock’s 21% surge—its most significant single-day move in over a year—follows a September mining update showcasing record Bitcoin production and a major U.S. order. With a 52-week high of $3.27 still in reach, the stock’s trajectory underscores renewed confidence in its North American expansion and renewable energy partnerships.

Record Bitcoin Production and Landmark Order Drive Canaan’s 21% Rally
Canaan’s 21% intraday surge is anchored by its September 2025 mining update, which revealed 92 bitcoins mined and a deployed hashrate of 9.30 EH/s. The company’s strategic partnership with Soluna to deploy 20 MW of Avalon A15 XP miners at a Texas wind-powered data center, coupled with a landmark U.S. order for 50,000 Avalon A15 Pro units, has galvanized investor sentiment. These developments signal Canaan’s ability to scale operations while leveraging low-cost renewable energy, directly addressing market concerns over mining efficiency and profitability. The stock’s sharp move aligns with broader sector optimism, as Bitcoin’s hashrate approaches 1 ZH/s and U.S. miners capitalize on post-halving demand.

Blockchain Sector Bolstered by Mining Momentum as Canaan Outpaces Peers
The blockchain sector, led by Riot Platforms (RIOT) with a 4.79% intraday gain, has seen renewed vigor from Bitcoin’s post-halving rebound. Canaan’s 21% rally far outpaces sector averages, driven by its dual focus on mining operations and hardware sales. While peers like Bitdeer and Hive Digital report mixed results, Canaan’s strategic vertical integration—combining self-mining, hardware exports, and renewable energy partnerships—positions it as a key beneficiary of the U.S. mining recovery. The stock’s performance highlights divergent operational strategies within the sector, with Canaan’s Texas expansion and Texas wind-powered infrastructure offering a scalable model for sustainable growth.

High-Leverage Call Options and ETFs Target Canaan’s Volatile Bull Run
• RSI: 76.44 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.1488 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.1138
• 200-day MA: $1.05 (below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $1.84 vs. upper band $1.52 (overextended)
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Canaan’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but its fundamentals—driven by record mining output and a $100M Q2 revenue surge—justify aggressive positioning. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $1.05 (support) and the 52-week high of $3.27 (resistant).

Top Options:
• CAN20251121C2 (Call, $2 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 211.03% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage: 4.28%
- Delta: 0.578 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.006865 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.315 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $238,218
- Payoff at 5% upside ($1.93): $0.09/share. This contract offers explosive potential if Canaan breaks above $2, leveraging its high gamma and IV.

• CAN20260116C2 (Call, $2 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 170.95% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage: 3.27%
- Delta: 0.628 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.003369 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.241 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $383,890
- Payoff at 5% upside ($1.93): $0.09/share. This longer-dated option balances time decay with directional exposure, ideal for a mid-term bullish stance.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize CAN20251121C2 for a short-term breakout play, while CAN20260116C2 suits a more measured approach. Both contracts capitalize on Canaan’s elevated IV and strong gamma, amplifying returns in a continued rally.

Backtest Canaan Stock Performance
The strategy shows that buying CAN after a ≥ 21 % one-day surge (and managing the position with a 20 % stop-loss, 80 % take-profit, 20-day maximum holding window) has been unfavourable since 2022:• Total return: -61.4 % • Annualised return: -13.5 % • Maximum drawdown: -73.4 % • Sharpe ratio: -0.27 • Average trade: -8.3 % (wins ≈ 16 %, losses ≈ -20 %)Interpretation The surge usually marked exhaustion rather than sustained momentum, and the risk-control rules rarely captured sizeable upside before hitting stop-losses or time exits.Below is an interactive summary of the back-test. Feel free to explore the details; if you’d like to adjust thresholds or holding rules, just let me know.

Canaan’s Bullish Momentum Suggests Aggressive Positioning for Q4 Expansion
Canaan’s 21% rally is underpinned by operational milestones and strategic clarity, with its Texas wind-powered mining expansion and 50,000-unit U.S. order signaling a pivotal inflection point. While the stock’s overbought RSI and stretched Bollinger Bands hint at near-term volatility, the fundamentals—$100M Q2 revenue, 9.30 EH/s deployed hashrate, and a $30M share repurchase program—justify a bullish stance. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $1.05 as a critical support level and consider the CAN20251121C2 call option for a high-leverage play on a $2 breakout. With the sector leader Riot Platforms (RIOT) up 4.79%, the blockchain space remains in sync with Canaan’s momentum. Act now: Buy CAN20251121C2 and hold for a $2.00+ target.