Can Donald Trump Keep His Tax Cut Promises?

Former President Donald Trump has made at least 11 new tax cut promises as part of his 2024 presidential campaign. However, the question remains: can he keep any of these promises, and if so, which ones? This article explores the feasibility of Trump's tax cut proposals and their potential impact on the U.S. economy.

Trump's tax cut proposals include extending the 2017 tax cuts, reducing the corporate tax rate, eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, tips, and overtime pay, and restoring the state and local tax deduction. Additionally, Trump has discussed replacing the individual income tax with tariffs. However, these proposals face significant challenges in terms of revenue loss and economic impact.


First, let's examine the potential revenue loss from Trump's tax cut proposals. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, renewing the 2017 tax cuts would cost an estimated $5.3 trillion over 10 years. Reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% would cost an additional $200 billion. Eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, tips, and overtime pay would cost about $3.6 trillion. Restoring the state and local tax deduction would cost $600 billion. Finally, replacing the individual income tax with tariffs would result in a significant revenue loss, as income taxes account for about half of federal revenue.


Given these revenue losses, it is unlikely that Trump's tax cut proposals can be fully funded through tariffs alone. Trump has pledged to impose a 20% universal tariff on all imports and a 60% rate for Chinese imports. However, tax experts reject the notion that tariff revenue could offset the losses incurred by eliminating income taxes. According to Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, Trump's tariffs would raise approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, far less than the roughly $33 trillion of estimated revenue generated by income taxes over the same period.

Moreover, Trump's tax cut proposals could have significant economic implications. While some of his proposals, such as eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits and tips, have broad public support, others, such as replacing the individual income tax with tariffs, are more controversial. Additionally, Trump's proposals could exacerbate income inequality, as wealthier Americans and corporations would benefit disproportionately from the tax cuts.

In conclusion, while Donald Trump has made at least 11 new tax cut promises, the feasibility of these proposals is questionable. The significant revenue loss and potential economic implications make it challenging for Trump to keep his tax cut promises. As the 2024 election approaches, it remains to be seen whether Trump can deliver on his tax cut proposals or if they will remain campaign rhetoric.