Camping World Plunges 11.0%—Is This the Final Warning Before a Retail Meltdown?

Summary
• Camping World (CWH) slumps 10.99% intraday, trading at $15.70 amid post-earnings selloff
• Q2 revenue beats $1.98B but EPS misses by 4.8%, sparking margin concerns
• 52-week low near $11.17 now within technical reach as RSI dips to 42.6
Camping World’s stock has imploded in real-time trading, sinking below $15.70—its weakest level since mid-July. The selloff follows a Q2 earnings report that revealed structural weaknesses in its retail model, despite beating revenue estimates. With the stock now trading nearly 11% below its 52-week high and AutoNation (AN) rallying 0.13%, the sector divergence raises urgent questions about CWH’s strategic viability.

Earnings Miss and Retail Erosion Trigger Investor Exodus
CWH’s 11% intraday collapse stems from a combination of earnings underperformance and deteriorating retail fundamentals. While the company reported $1.98B in Q2 revenue (9.4% YoY growth), its adjusted EPS of $0.57 fell 4.8% below estimates, signaling margin compression. Compounding this, same-store sales have declined 13.4% annually over the past two years, revealing a reliance on high-cost store expansion rather than organic demand. Management’s focus on cost controls now faces scrutiny as investors question whether these measures can offset the erosion of core retail demand.

Auto Dealerships Sector Splits—CWH Underperforms Despite AN’s Gains
The Auto & Truck Dealerships sector remains mixed, with sector leader AutoNation (AN) gaining 0.13% on the day, outperforming CWH’s 11% decline. While Camping World’s struggles reflect its unique challenges—namely, declining same-store sales and margin compression—larger peers like Lithia Motors and Sonic Automotive have shown resilience through diversified revenue streams and robust franchise models. CWH’s reliance on high-cost retail expansion, contrasted with competitors’ emphasis on digital integration and fixed operations, highlights a strategic divergence that may widen in the coming quarters.

Bearish Playbook: Short-Term Puts and ETF Neutralization
• RSI: 42.6 (oversold)
• MACD: 0.05 vs. Signal 0.106 (bearish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $15.70 near lower band ($16.94)
• 200D MA: $19.36 (price 20% below)
CWH’s technical profile screams short-term bearishness. The stock is trading near its 52-week low and is oversold by RSI standards, with MACD forming a bearish crossover. Immediate support levels at $15.31 (intraday low) and $14.00 (lower Bollinger Band) are critical. A breakdown below $15.31 could trigger a retest of the 200-day MA at $19.36, but given the weak fundamentals, a $12–$14 range appears more likely in the near term.
Top Options Picks:
• CWH20250815P15 (Put, $15 strike, 8/15 expiry)
- IV: 53.00% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 30.83% (high)
- Delta: -0.38 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0127 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.216 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 32,103 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Downside (14.65): $0.35 (350% return)
This put option offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the selloff. The moderate delta ensures it responds meaningfully to price moves, while high gamma amplifies sensitivity to volatility shifts.
• CWH20250919P15 (Put, $15 strike, 9/19 expiry)
- IV: 54.15% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 15.11% (balanced)
- Delta: -0.40 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0088 (low decay)
- Gamma: 0.122 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 9,568 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% Downside (14.65): $0.35 (233% return)
The longer-dated option provides more time for the bearish thesis to play out, with lower time decay and high turnover ensuring ease of entry. Its moderate gamma ensures it adapts to price swings without excessive decay.
Action Alert: Short-term bears should prioritize CWH20250815P15 for immediate exposure, while longer-term traders may consider CWH20250919P15 to hedge against volatility shifts. If $15.31 breaks, CWH20250815P15 offers short-side potential.

Backtest Camping World Stock Performance
The backtest of CWH's performance after an intraday plunge of -11% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 51.31%, indicating a higher probability of a positive return in the short term, the 10-day win rate is lower at 48.03%, suggesting that longer-term returns are more variable. The 30-day win rate is similar to the 3-day win rate at 51.31%, indicating that medium-term returns also have a high probability of being positive. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.76%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there is a good chance of a positive return, the magnitude of the return may be relatively modest.

Bearish Breakdown Imminent—Act Now Before $15.31 Support Crumbles
CWH’s 11% selloff signals a critical juncture. Technical indicators—oversold RSI, bearish MACD, and proximity to lower Bollinger Bands—suggest a continuation of the downtrend. Immediate focus should be on $15.31 support; a breakdown here could trigger a sharp retest of $14.00. Meanwhile, sector leader AutoNation’s 0.13% gain hints at broader industry resilience. Investors should prioritize short-term puts like CWH20250815P15 to capitalize on the near-term bearish momentum. Watch for $15.31’s breakdown or AutoNation’s reversal to gauge the next move.