Cameroon's Crossroads: Political Turmoil and Economic Opportunities Ahead of 2025 Election

Cameroon stands at a pivotal moment. As the country prepares for its October 2025 presidential election, political tensions—rooted in a decades-old Anglophone crisis, government repression, and the specter of Paul Biya's four-decade rule—are colliding with economic growth opportunities in agriculture, energy, and infrastructure. For investors, the question is clear: Is Cameroon's economy worth betting on, or are the risks of instability too great?

Political Risks: A Volatile Election Landscape

The election is a referendum on Biya, 92, who has yet to confirm whether he'll seek an eighth term. His longtime ally, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, recently resigned and launched a presidential bid under the Cameroon National Salvation Front (CNSF), vowing to address Anglophone grievances through federalism. Yet skepticism abounds: critics dismiss Tchiroma as a “system insider” unlikely to deliver change.

The Anglophone crisis, now in its ninth year, continues to fuel violence. Over 900,000 people are internally displaced, with separatist groups like the Ambazonia Defence Forces clashing with government forces. The government's crackdown on dissent has intensified, including banning Tchiroma's party in key regions and detaining rival candidates.

Risk Takeaway: The election could spark destabilizing violence, especially if the outcome is disputed or if Biya's health worsens. Investors should monitor reports of election-related unrest and consider geopolitical risks akin to those in Ukraine or Nigeria.

Economic Outlook: Growth Amidst Uncertainty

Despite political turmoil, Cameroon's economy is projected to grow 4.2% in 2025, driven by agriculture, infrastructure projects, and oil/gas exports. Key sectors to watch:

1. Agriculture (40% of GDP): Cocoa, coffee, and timber exports are booming, aided by modernization efforts. The Port of Kribi's expansion will reduce logistics costs, making Cameroon a regional trade hub.

2. Energy Transition: Renewable energy investments—particularly hydropower (e.g., the Nachtigal dam) and solar—are surging. Cameroon's renewable potential could attract green investors seeking African exposure.

3. Infrastructure: The Dibamba Industrial Port Zone and road projects are critical to connecting rural areas, boosting agriculture, and reducing supply-chain bottlenecks.

4. Tech and Services: Startups like Yango (e-commerce) are expanding, while the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is driving cross-border trade.

Opportunity Takeaway: Sectors with low political exposure—like agriculture, renewables, and logistics—offer resilient growth. The Port of Kribi, for instance, is a “hard asset” that could thrive even amid election chaos.

Investment Risks: Beyond the Political

• Security Risks: Boko Haram's attacks in the north and Anglophone separatist violence could disrupt supply chains or deter foreign workers.
• Bureaucracy: Corruption and red tape plague sectors like mining and real estate. Cameroon ranks 145th/180 on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index.
• Commodity Dependence: Oil accounts for 40% of GDP. A global recession or price slump could destabilize budgets.
• Currency Volatility: The CFA franc's peg to the euro may limit flexibility in managing shocks.

Investment Strategy: Proceed with Caution

For investors, Cameroon is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Here's how to navigate it:

1. Prioritize Infrastructure: Invest in projects tied to the Port of Kribi or the Nachtigal dam. These are government-backed and less exposed to political turnover.
2. Focus on Agro-exports: Companies in cocoa processing or sustainable timber could benefit from rising global demand.
3. Avoid Anglophone Regions: Until the crisis is resolved, steer clear of investments in the Northwest/Southwest.
4. Watch for Sanctions: If the election is perceived as unfair, Western governments might impose sanctions, hitting sectors like oil and finance.

Conclusion: A Gamble on the Future

Cameroon's economy is a microcosm of Africa's contradictions: a nation rich in resources yet shackled by political decay. The 2025 election could be a turning point—if the vote is free and the next leader addresses systemic corruption and Anglophone demands.

For now, investors should treat Cameroon as a “swing bet.” Those with a long-term horizon and risk tolerance might find value in agriculture or renewables, but they must brace for volatility. As one analyst put it: “Cameroon isn't a place to plant money; it's a place to plant seeds—and hope the soil isn't poisoned by politics.”

Investors should proceed with eyes wide open.