Cameco Shares Drop 4.37% As Technical Indicators Signal Consolidation After Rally

Cameco shares declined 4.37% in the most recent session (2025-09-24), closing at $83.09 after trading between $82.95 and $89.13 on elevated volume of 6.36 million shares. This downturn follows a volatile period characterized by a sharp rally from August lows near $70 to September's peak of $89.13, with technical indicators now suggesting potential consolidation.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns indicate weakening bullish momentum. The September 24 session formed a bearish shooting star pattern—a high of $89.13 and close near the low ($83.09)—signaling rejection at new resistance near $89. Immediate support appears at $82.40-$82.95 (September 19-24 lows), while failure here could target $80.23 (September 16 low). Resistance remains firm at $89.13, with a sustained break above needed to resume the uptrend.
Moving Average Theory
Key moving averages reflect a bullish long-term trend but near-term pressure. The 50-day MA (≈$80) remains above the 100-day MA (≈$75) and 200-day MA (≈$63), confirming the broader uptrend. However, the recent close ($83.09) hovering just above the 50-day MA suggests this level is being tested as support. A breakdown below $80 could trigger further selling, while holding above may signal consolidation before a rebound.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows waning bullish momentum, with the MACD line converging toward the signal line after the September peak. This hints at potential bearish crossover risk. KDJ oscillators align with short-term overbought conditions easing; the %K line (currently ≈60) crossed below %D after peaking near 85 (overbought) in mid-September. While not yet oversold, this divergence from the price high implies near-term consolidation may continue.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded during Cameco’s September rally, with price touching the upper band near $89. The subsequent retreat to the mid-band ($84–$85) reflects normalization after overextension. Bandwidth contraction from recent highs suggests decreased volatility, potentially preceding a directional move. Holding the mid-band may stabilize prices, while a breach could target the lower band ($79–$80).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate bearish near-term sentiment. The 4.32% rally on September 19 occurred on high volume (7.98M shares), confirming bullish conviction. Conversely, the recent 4.37% drop (September 24) saw volume surge to 6.36M shares—exceeding the prior two sessions—indicating distribution. Sustained selling pressure below $85 on elevated volume may prolong downside movement.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (≈55) has retreated from overbought territory (>70) after the $89 peak but remains above oversold levels (<30). This cooling aligns with price consolidation, though the absence of oversold conditions suggests further downside is possible. Divergence emerged as September’s higher price highs lacked corresponding RSI confirmation, warning of weakening momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the rally from April’s low of $38.68 to September’s high of $89.13 highlights key supports. The 23.6% retracement ($77.22) aligns with the June-July consolidation zone and represents major support. The 38.2% level ($69.86) offers secondary support. Current prices ($83) are testing the immediate range above the 23.6% threshold, with a break below $82.40 potentially accelerating a test of $77.22.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears at $82.40–$82.95, where candlestick support, the 50-day MA (≈$80), and Bollinger mid-band ($84–$85) converge. This zone is critical for maintaining bullish structure. However, divergence exists between KDJ’s overbought signal and RSI’s non-confirmation of September’s highs, suggesting weakening momentum before the recent pullback. A decisive break below $82.40 would align multiple indicators (volume, candlesticks, moving averages) for a deeper correction toward $77.22. Conversely, reclaiming $85 with supportive volume could restore bullish control.