Cameco Rises 2.65% As Technicals Signal Bullish Rebound From Key Support

Cameco (CCJ) concluded the most recent session with a 2.65% gain, closing at $72.70. This positive movement follows recent volatility and sets the context for a multi-indicator technical assessment of its price trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals significant candlestick patterns influencing Cameco's near-term direction. The session on July 8th formed a pronounced bearish engulfing pattern, closing near its low at $71.94 after reaching $75.16, signaling strong rejection and potential trend reversal. This was followed by a hammer candlestick on July 10th (low: $69.32, close: $70.82), occurring near the $70 psychological level and the significant volume spike low from June 9th ($66.91), suggesting potential buyers stepping in. The subsequent two up days, especially the July 11th close near the high ($72.70), affirm this near-term support around $70.00-$69.30. Immediate resistance is apparent near the July 8th high/July 7th close zone around $75.15-$75.20, with stronger resistance likely near the June 26th peak of $75.42.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration presents a largely bullish intermediate to long-term trend. The 50-day moving average (approximately $63-$64 based on the data) sits below the current price and slopes upwards, indicating positive short-term momentum. The 100-day MA (around $56-$57) also trends upwards and provides a dynamic support level significantly below the current price. Crucially, the long-term 200-day moving average (estimated near $48-$50) exhibits a sustained upward trajectory, confirming the primary bullish trend remains intact despite recent pullbacks. The price trading well above all three key MAs reinforces this bullish bias.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD indicator (12,26,9) shows potential for a bullish crossover following the recent price rebound, moving out of negative territory. This hints at recovering positive momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ indicator oscillators are rising from neutral/mildly oversold territory. The %K line crossing above the %D line around July 10th/11th supports the short-term bullish reversal signalled by the candlesticks. Both indicators suggest bearish momentum from the early July decline is waning, potentially giving way to renewed upside pressure.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band analysis highlights evolving volatility. The bands contracted noticeably during the consolidation in late June/early July around the $70-$75 range. The sharp drop on July 8th caused the price to breach the lower band briefly, often indicating an oversold condition or exhaustion move. The subsequent rebound has brought the price back towards the 20-period moving average (mid-band), currently around $71-$72. Bandwidth remains relatively wide, suggesting ongoing volatility, but the contraction prior to the drop and recovery from the lower band support the case for stabilization or upside continuation near-term. Holding above the mid-band ($71-$72) is constructive.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis provides crucial context for recent price moves. The significant plunge on July 8th (-4.32%) occurred on very high volume (6.42M shares), confirming strong selling pressure and validating the breakdown. However, the subsequent hammer reversal on July 10th developed on even higher volume (6.33M shares – the highest volume down day in the data), suggesting potential climactic selling or strong absorption. The follow-through bounce on July 11th, while on lower volume (4.03M shares), still saw above-average participation. This volume pattern during the $70-$69 rebound lends credibility to that level as significant support. Earlier volume spikes coincide with major trend moves: high volume on the June 9th surge ($66.91 low) and June 26th peak ($75.42).
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI, currently estimated near 54-56, resides firmly in neutral territory. It recently rebounded from near oversold levels (approaching but not reaching 30) during the dip to the $69.32 low on July 10th. This recovery from the mid-40s towards neutrality aligns with the price rebound and supports the notion of selling pressure easing. Importantly, there is no divergence currently; the RSI low in early July corresponds with the price low. While not overbought (>70) yet, the upward trajectory suggests improving momentum without immediate exhaustion warnings.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major swing low on June 9th ($66.91) to the recent high on June 26th ($75.42) provides key retracement levels. The 38.2% retracement sits at $71.97, while the more critical 61.8% retracement lies near $70.25. The July price action saw the dip bottom near $69.32, slightly exceeding the 61.8% level ($70.25) but finding solid support. This successful defense of the deep retracement zone strengthens its importance. The bounce has now pushed the price back above the 38.2% level ($71.97), with the July 11th close at $72.70 solidifying this reclaim. Upside targets now include the 23.6% level at $73.65 and the prior high of $75.42. The 61.8% level ($70.25) now becomes major support.
Confluence and Divergence
Significant confluence exists around the $69.30-$70.50 zone: it aligns with the deep Fibonacci retracement (61.8%), the psychological $70 level, the high-volume reversal candle low (July 10th), and the swing low support from June 9th ($66.91) confirmed by massive volume. This multi-factor support held effectively, triggering the recent rebound. No significant bearish divergences are currently evident; momentum oscillators (MACD, KDJ, RSI) are recovering alongside price. The primary caution stems from the lower volume on the July 11th advance compared to the preceding down days, suggesting conviction behind the rebound needs further volume confirmation on continued upside, especially as it approaches resistance near $73.65 (Fibonacci 23.6%) and $75.20. The overall technical picture suggests Cameco is likely attempting to regain its upward trajectory following a sharp but well-supported pullback near major technical support.