Cameco Plunges 5.8% Amid Uranium Sector Selloff—What’s Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• Cameco (CCJ) slumps 5.79% to $69.545, its steepest intraday drop since March 2023.
• Intraday range: $68.97 (low) to $72.81 (high), with turnover surging to 5.9 million shares.
• Sector peers Energy Fuels (UUUU) and Uranium Energy (UEC) also crater amid oversupply fears.
• Kazakhstan’s production expansion and geopolitical optimism drive the selloff.

Cameco’s sharp decline reflects a uranium sector recalibrating for increased supply from Kazakhstan and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Despite uranium prices near multi-year highs, equities face profit-taking and bearish sentiment. The stock’s technicals and options activity signal short-term volatility, with key support levels and put options offering strategic entry points for traders.

Kazakhstan’s Uranium Output Surge Sparks Sector-Wide Profit-Taking
Cameco’s 5.79% intraday drop stems from a collision of profit-taking and renewed supply-side concerns. Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer, announced plans to double output at the Moinkum deposit to 4,000 tonnes annually by 2026. This expansion, supported by a new processing complex in Tortkuduk, threatens to flood the market with low-cost uranium, dampening price momentum. Meanwhile, geopolitical optimism—fueled by potential U.S.-Russia relations normalization—has reduced fears of sanctions on Russian uranium, further eroding demand for Western miners. The selloff is compounded by broader market jitters over an “AI winter” and energy sector rotation, creating a perfect storm for uranium equities.

Uranium Sector in Freefall as Energy Fuels and Uranium Energy Crash
The uranium sector is experiencing a synchronized selloff, with Energy Fuels (UUUU) down 0.53% and Uranium Energy (UEC) plunging 10.5%. Cameco’s 5.79% decline aligns with the sector’s bearish trend, despite uranium spot prices remaining above $73 per pound. The disconnect between physical prices and equity valuations underscores the sector’s vulnerability to production overhangs and speculative trading. Kazakhstan’s production ramp-up and Kazatomprom’s financial strength ($3.3 billion revenue in 2024) are reshaping the competitive landscape, leaving U.S.-based miners like Cameco at a disadvantage.

Bearish Playbook: Puts and Put Options for a Volatile Sector
• 200-day average: $55.79 (far below current price)
• RSI: 39.75 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 0.56 (bullish divergence) vs. signal line 1.11
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $69.545, near lower band ($72.77)
• Key support/resistance: 200D support at $52.25, 30D resistance at $77.74

Cameco’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite long-term bullish fundamentals. The stock is trading below its 30D MA ($76.31) and 100D MA ($60.87), with RSI in oversold territory. A 5% downside scenario (to $66.15) could trigger further selling pressure. For options traders, the CCJ20250829P65 and CCJ20250829P67 put options stand out:

• CCJ20250829P65
- Strike: $65 | IV: 49.56% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: -0.1747 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0208 (time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0449 (price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 7,801 (liquid)
- Leverage: 124.77% (high reward potential)
- Payoff at $66.15: $1.15 per contract
- Why it works: High leverage and liquidity make this a strong short-term bearish play.

• CCJ20250829P67
- Strike: $67 | IV: 47.61% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: -0.2789 (strong sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0075 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0610 (high price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 31,435 (liquid)
- Leverage: 70.58% (balanced risk/reward)
- Payoff at $66.15: $0.85 per contract
- Why it works: Strong delta and gamma position this for gains if the selloff accelerates.

If $65 breaks, CCJ20250829P65 offers a high-leverage bearish bet. Aggressive bulls may consider CCJ20250829C66 into a bounce above $72.77.

Backtest Cameco Stock Performance
The conclusion is derived from the backtest data where the ETF CCJ demonstrated a robust recovery after an intraday plunge of -6%. The 3-Day win rate was 56.19%, the 10-Day win rate was 59.36%, and the 30-Day win rate was 63.55%, indicating that CCJ tended to rebound over various short-term horizons. The maximum return during the backtest period was 14.07%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that CCJ could deliver significant gains in the aftermath of a substantial pullback.

Uranium Sector at Crossroads—Act Now on Short-Term Volatility
Cameco’s sharp decline reflects a sector grappling with oversupply fears and geopolitical optimism. While uranium prices remain structurally strong, near-term volatility is inevitable as Kazakhstan’s production surge and profit-taking pressure equities. Investors should monitor the 200D support at $52.25 and 30D resistance at $77.74 for directional clues. The sector leader, Uranium Energy (UEC), is down 10.5%, highlighting divergent performance within uranium equities. For now, short-term bearish options like CCJ20250829P65 and CCJ20250829P67 offer compelling risk/reward profiles. Watch for a breakdown below $65 or a shift in geopolitical sentiment.