Cameco Drops 4.6% Amid Bearish Technical Signals And Elevated Volume

Cameco Technical Analysis
Cameco (CCJ) declined 4.60% in the latest session, closing at $63.83 after trading between $62.59 and $66.79 on elevated volume of 10.7 million shares. This price action warrants a multi-faceted technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
The June 9–10 sessions formed a prominent bearish engulfing pattern, peaking at $68.12 before closing at $66.91, followed by a gap-down decline to $63.83. This signals strong resistance near $67–$68. Immediate support rests at $62.50–$63.00 (June 10 low), with a break potentially targeting $59.25 (June 6 low). Resistance is firm at $66.80 (June 10 high), then $68.12.
Moving Average Theory
Current price trades below all key moving averages: 50-day (~$55.50), 100-day (~$52.80), and 200-day (~$47.00). The 50-day crossing below the 100-day in late May confirmed intermediate bearish momentum. Sustained trading below the 50-day MA suggests persistent near-term weakness, though the ascending 200-day MA reflects a longer-term bullish trend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains negative territory, with signal line resistance capping upside momentum. KDJ shows the %K line at 32 and %D at 45, exiting overbought territory but not yet oversold. The bearish MACD cross aligns with recent selling pressure. However, KDJ’s lack of oversold readings indicates potential downward extension before stabilization.
Bollinger Bands
Price breached the lower Bollinger Band ($62.50) on June 10 amid expanding volatility. Band width increased 20% over the prior three sessions, reflecting rising market anxiety. A close below the lower band may signal short-term oversold conditions, though sustained breaks often precede additional downside.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution is evident: June 9’s 10.74% surge occurred on 16M shares (vs. 3M avg), followed by the June 10 sell-off on 10.7M shares. High volume on down days (June 10, May 29) validates bearish conviction, while rally volume lacks commensurate accumulation—suggesting unsustainable rebounds.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI (14-period) currently reads 41, down sharply from 68 on June 9. While not oversold (<30), the rapid descent through neutral 50 signals strengthening bearish momentum. Prior rallies stalled near 70, reinforcing overbought sensitivity.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the rally from May’s low of $38.68 (April 10) to June’s peak of $68.12:
- 38.2% retracement: $56.80 (breached on June 10)
- 50% retracement: $53.40 (aligned with May 27 consolidation)
- 61.8% retracement: $50.00 (key long-term support)
Convergence at $53.40 (Fib 50% + May 27 swing low) offers a critical potential reversal zone.
Confluence & Divergences
Confluence exists at the $62.50–$63.00 support (candlestick low/Bollinger Band), with failure here targeting $56.80 (Fib 38.2%). Divergence appears between MACD (bearish) and KDJ (not oversold), indicating unresolved downward pressure. Volume validates distribution, while RSI and Bollinger Bands suggest negative momentum prevails. The breach of key MAs reinforces bearish bias short-term, though 200-MA alignment underpins a structurally bullish long-term trend. Probabilistically, further consolidation near $63–$65 appears likely before retesting $60 or lower if volume-supported breakdowns persist.