Cameco Drops 4.37% As Shooting Star Pattern Signals Near-Term Pullback

Cameco (CCJ) declined 4.37% in the latest session, closing at $83.09 after trading between $82.95 and $89.13. This sharp pullback on above-average volume of 6.18 million shares warrants a comprehensive technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a pronounced shooting star pattern, characterized by a long upper wick (reaching $89.13) and close near the day’s low ($82.95). This pattern emerges near the $89.13 resistance level and aligns with the September 22 low of $82.95, establishing immediate support. The rejection near $89 suggests sellers are defending this resistance zone vigorously, while $82.95 represents a critical short-term support level. A confirmed break below $82.95 may trigger accelerated selling toward the $80.23–$79.71 congestion area.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages remain configured bullishly (50 > 100 > 200), confirming a broader uptrend. The current price sits comfortably above the rising 200-day average (~$62), reflecting sustained long-term momentum. However, the $83.09 close now tests the 50-day MA (~$82.80) after a sharp reversal. Failure to hold this moving average support could signal near-term trend deterioration, though the primary trend remains intact so long as the 100-day MA (~$77) remains unbroken.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bullish momentum, with the MACD line flattening near the signal line after the price rejection at $89.13. While not yet bearish, this loss of momentum increases susceptibility to a pullback. The KDJ indicator (particularly the %K line at 75) is retreating from overbought territory (>80), reinforcing near-term exhaustion. This co-occurrence with the shooting star pattern heightens reversal probability toward oversold conditions (<20), though the stochastic remains in a neutral zone currently.
Bollinger Bands
Price action has retreated from the upper Bollinger Band ($89.50) toward the middle band (20-day MA at $85.20), reflecting normalization after recent expansion. The bands remain moderately wide, suggesting persistent volatility. A sustained move below the middle band could open a path toward the lower band ($80.90), especially if volume increases during the descent. The lack of band contraction implies limited consolidation likelihood before directional resolution.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent rally to $89.13 occurred on lower volume (6.18M shares) compared to the September 15 surge (10.2M shares), indicating weak conviction at highs. The 4.37% decline occurred on higher volume than the preceding up day (6.18M vs 4.66M), confirming distribution. This volume divergence reinforces the shooting star’s warning. Sustained selling pressure would require validation through consecutive high-volume down days.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (currently ~62) has retreated from overbought thresholds (>70) after peaking near 75, alleviating immediate overextension concerns. While momentum remains neutral, the reversal from overbought territory aligns with other bearish signals. Traders should monitor for potential oversold signals (<30) if selling accelerates, though RSI alone doesn’t constitute a standalone reversal indicator.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the rally from the September 15 low ($78.22) to the September 24 high ($89.13) shows critical retracement thresholds: 23.6% ($86.55), 38.2% ($84.96), and 50% ($83.68). The current close at $83.09 breaches the 50% level, targeting the 61.8% retracement at $82.39. This Fibonacci level converges with the $82.95 candlestick support, creating a high-probability bounce or breakdown zone. A decisive close below $82.39 could extend losses toward the 78.6% level at $80.55.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears at $82.95–$82.39 (candlestick support + 61.8% Fibonacci + 50-day MA), suggesting a pivotal battleground. Bearish divergences include volume fading on new highs and MACD momentum stalling near recent peaks despite higher prices. The collective signal warns of near-term consolidation/pullback after the sharp rally, though the primary uptrend remains unchallenged below the 100-day MA.