Cameco Drops 2.23% To $78.11 As Bearish Signals Converge At $77.50 Support

Cameco (CCJ) declined 2.23% in the latest session to close at $78.11, establishing a trading range between $77.525 and $79.75 amid moderate volume. This movement occurs within a broader technical context, as analyzed below through multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a bearish reversal pattern near the $80 psychological resistance. The 2025-09-10 bullish engulfing candle (close: $79.47) was invalidated by two consecutive bearish candles, including today’s long wick above $79.75 signaling rejection. Key support converges at $77.50 (tested twice this week and in late August), while resistance solidifies at $80-$81.50, aligning with the August peak. Failure to hold $77.50 may trigger bearish continuation toward $75.50.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-DMA ($75.80) maintains an upward slope above the 100-DMA ($70.50) and 200-DMA ($65.80), confirming the primary bullish trend. However, the price has retreated toward the 50-DMA after stalling below the 2025-08-29 high ($83.02). This proximity to short-term dynamic support ($75.80) is critical—a decisive break below it could signal trend deterioration, while holding above sustains the intermediate uptrend. The golden cross (50-DMA above 200-DMA since mid-2024) remains intact.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) has crossed below its signal line near the zero axis, reflecting waning bullish momentum. Meanwhile, KDJ’s %K (43) crossed below %D (55) from overbought territory (>80 on 2025-09-10), suggesting near-term bearish momentum. However, neither oscillator shows extreme readings yet. The MACD histogram’s negative slope amplifies downside risk, though oversold KDJ levels (<30) are not yet reached, implying potential further downside before stabilization.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply after late August’s volatility spike ($83.02 to $70.47), signaling reduced volatility and impending breakout potential. The price now tests the 20-day middle band (~$77.50), coinciding with candlestick support. A sustained break below this band could target the lower band (~$72.50). Narrowing bandwidth supports consolidation, but directional bias hinges on the $77.50-$80 range resolution.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged during the late August sell-off (8.1M shares on 2025-08-20) and subsequent rally (6.98M on 2025-08-29), confirming trend moves. Recent declines (e.g., today’s 3.65M) show lower volume than preceding rallies, suggesting weak capitulation—yet failure to reclaim $80 on dwindling volume (3.71M on 2025-09-09) reveals demand exhaustion. A close below $77.50 with volume expansion would validate bearish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (55) has retreated from overbought levels (75 on 2025-08-29) but remains neutral. This cooling aligns with price consolidation rather than an oversold reversal signal. The absence of RSI divergence during the September pullback suggests no imminent trend reversal. However, a break below 50 would strengthen bearish momentum, while holding above 50 may preserve upside potential.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the July-August rally ($70.47 low to $83.02 high) shows Cameco testing the 38.2% retracement ($77.70), which converges with today’s low and 50-DMA support. A breach here exposes the 50% level ($76.25) and 61.8% ($74.80). The 23.6% retracement ($80.00) now acts as resistance, reinforcing the $80 psychological barrier observed in candlestick analysis.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence is evident at $77.50-$77.70, aggregating 50-DMA, Bollinger middle band, 38.2% Fib, and multi-test candlestick support. This zone is pivotal—breach may accelerate selling toward $74.80-76.25. Divergence appears between moderate bearish volume (lack of panic selling) and bearish momentum signals (MACD crossover, KDJ downturn), suggesting sellers aren’t exhausted but lack conviction. The RSI’s neutral stance contrasts with near-term bearish momentum oscillators, indicating fragmented signals. Resolution at the $77.50-$80.00 zone is likely to dictate the next directional move, with downside risks currently carrying higher probability given multiple indicator alignments below $78.00.