Calgary's Residential Market: Navigating Cooling Sales and Emerging Opportunities in Undervalued Housing Segments

Amid a cooling residential market, Calgary's real estate landscape is revealing strategic entry points for investors willing to navigate shifting supply-demand dynamics. While overall sales have dipped, lower-priced detached and semi-detached homes in select neighborhoods remain undervalued, offering rare opportunities to capitalize on improving affordability and rising inventory. Supported by stable employment trends and a market transitioning toward balance, now is the time to act before broader stabilization erodes these advantages.

The Cooling Sales Picture: A Masked Opportunity

National data reveals that Calgary's residential sales eased by 17% year-over-year in Q2 2025, with detached homes bearing the brunt of declining affordability in lower price tiers. Yet, this slowdown masks a critical shift: inventory growth in higher-priced segments has not yet penetrated the most affordable brackets, creating a supply vacuum for budget-conscious buyers.

CREB's latest reports highlight that detached homes below $600,000 now represent just 13% of inventory, down from 18% in 2023. Meanwhile, semi-detached listings surged in higher price ranges, but affordability remains intact for buyers targeting undervalued neighborhoods. This imbalance creates a sweet spot for investors to acquire properties in overlooked areas before broader price adjustments.

Affordability Improvements: A Tailwind for Strategic Buyers

The National Bank of Canada's 2025 affordability metrics confirm Calgary's relative affordability compared to major cities like Toronto or Vancouver. While the price-to-income ratio for the average home remains elevated at 42.2%, improvements are emerging in lower-priced segments:

• Lower-tier detached homes (under $600K) now require 38.5% of median income for ownership, down from 40.7% in 2023.
• Semi-detached homes in the $500K–$700K range saw their affordability burden drop to 39.1%, aligning with long-term averages.

These metrics underscore a market correction—not a crash. With mortgage rates projected to fall to 2% by mid-2025, the cost of borrowing will further tilt the scales in favor of buyers.

Targeting Undervalued Neighborhoods: Where to Invest Now

The key to unlocking value lies in neighborhoods where employment growth intersects with underpenetrated housing stock. Focus on areas like East Calgary, Airdrie, and Cochrane, where:

1. Job Markets Are Steady: Calgary's energy sector resurgence, tech job growth, and healthcare expansion are fueling demand. Employment in Calgary's core grew by 2.8% year-over-year in Q2 2025, outpacing national averages.
2. Inventory Is Balancing: CREB data shows new listings in these areas rose by 25% in Q2, but prices remain stable (e.g., East Calgary detached homes at $589K, below their 2023 peak).
3. Infrastructure Investments: New transit links and commercial developments in East Calgary and Airdrie will boost property values over the next 18–24 months.

Risks and Mitigation: Navigating the Near Term

While risks like overbuilding in luxury segments or a slowdown in interprovincial migration exist, Calgary's fundamentals remain robust. The sales-to-new-listings ratio for lower-priced detached homes (68%) signals a seller's market persisting in affordable tiers. Investors should prioritize:
- Cash-flow-positive properties: Target semi-detached homes in price-balanced zones, where rent-to-price ratios exceed 4%.
- Undeveloped land in growth corridors: Airdrie's new town center and East Calgary's tech hubs offer land development potential.

Conclusion: Act Now Before Stabilization Narrows the Window

Calgary's residential market is at an inflection point. While cooling sales have deterred some investors, the data reveals a clear path to value creation in undervalued neighborhoods. With affordability improving and inventory growth favoring strategic buyers, the next 12 months will be pivotal.

Investors who move swiftly to acquire properties in overlooked areas—such as East Calgary's family-friendly suburbs or Airdrie's emerging commercial hubs—will secure assets poised to appreciate as the market stabilizes. Delay, and these opportunities will vanish.

The time to act is now. Calgary's real estate story isn't ending—it's just beginning to favor the bold and informed.

Investment Action Plan
1. Focus on neighborhoods: East Calgary, Airdrie, and Cochrane.
2. Target properties: Semi-detached homes under $600K; detached homes below $700K.
3. Monitor metrics: Track CREB's inventory shifts and National Bank's affordability ratios weekly.
4. Move decisively: With rates falling and supply still constrained in lower tiers, price negotiations are favorable.

Don't wait—act now to secure your slice of Calgary's rebound.