Cal-Maine Foods Skyrockets 18.7%—Is This the Dawn of a New Egg Era?

Summary
• Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) surges to an all-time intraday high of $126.40, up 18.7% from its July 23 open at $113.30
• Earnings beat estimates by 17.8% with $7.04 EPS and $1.1B revenue, driven by 54.9% higher egg prices
• Avian flu (HPAI) disruptions and strategic acquisitions like Echo Lake Foods fuel momentum
• Options frenzy: 2025-08-15 $120 call options trade at 2,187% gains, reflecting bullish bets on sustained demand
Shares of Cal-Maine Foods have erupted to record levels on July 23, driven by a perfect storm of record profits, supply chain tailwinds, and strategic expansion. The stock’s 18.7% intraday gain—its largest ever—reflects a market seizing on the company’s dominance in a crisis-driven egg market and its aggressive diversification into prepared foods.

Egg Shortages and Strategic Expansion Ignite Bullish Frenzy
Cal-Maine Foods’ 18.7% surge stems from a combination of record financial results and macroeconomic tailwinds. The company’s Q4 FY2025 earnings of $7.04 per share—up 200% from $2.32 in the same period last year—were fueled by a 54.9% jump in average egg prices to $3.31 per dozen. This pricing power emerged as HPAI outbreaks reduced U.S. egg supply by 40.2 million hens in 2024 and 39 million in 2025, while demand spiked around Easter. Additionally, Cal-Maine’s acquisition of Echo Lake Foods in June 2025—adding a $1.1B prepared foods segment—signals a strategic pivot to diversify revenue streams. The stock’s breakout above its 52-week high of $126.40 aligns with the company’s 9% volume increase in shell egg sales and its 16% surge in specialty egg production, which now accounts for a record 121.8 million dozens.

Options and ETFs to Leverage Cal-Maine’s Bull Run
• 200-day average: 96.80 (well below current price)
• RSI: 59.3 (neutral, suggesting no immediate overbought/oversold signals)
• MACD: 1.89 (bullish divergence from signal line 1.66)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 107.06 (upper band), 102.29 (middle), 97.52 (lower)—indicating strong momentum
• Kline pattern: Short-term bullish trend with long-term ranging behavior
Cal-Maine Foods’ technicals suggest a continuation of its breakout above $120, supported by its 52-week high and strong earnings tailwinds. The stock is trading at 4.9x forward PE, far below its 5-year average of 12.5x, offering valuation upside. Key levels to watch: 1) $120 (psychological and moving average resistance), 2) $125 (next Fibonacci extension), and 3) $130 (test of 2022 highs).
Top Options Picks:
1. CALM20250815C120 (Call, $120 strike, Aug 15 expiry)
- IV: 36.62% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 17.57% (high)
- Delta: 0.66 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.009 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.031 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 77,609 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST=130.50): $10.50 per contract
- Why: High gamma and leverage ratio make this ideal for a 5% rally, with low theta preserving value as expiration nears.
2. CALM20250815C125 (Call, $125 strike, Aug 15 expiry)
- IV: 36.50% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 28.63% (high)
- Delta: 0.496 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.039 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.034 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 83,454 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST=130.50): $5.50 per contract
- Why: Balances leverage and theta for a conservative bullish bet, with turnover ensuring liquidity.
Aggressive bulls should consider CALM20250815C120 for maximum leverage on a 5% move, while more conservative traders might opt for CALM20250815C125 to hedge against time decay.

Backtest Cal-Maine Foods Stock Performance
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) experienced a significant surge of 19% intraday, which had a notable impact on its performance. Here's how the stock performed after this surge:1. Post-Surge Performance: After the 19% intraday surge, CALM's stock price continued to show strong performance. For instance, on the day following the surge, the stock closed at a record high, reflecting investor confidence and positive market sentiment.2. Market Reaction: The market reacted positively to Cal-Maine's strong Q4 results, which included a significant beat on earnings and revenue expectations. The company's Q4 adjusted earnings reached $7.04 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus of $5.43. This positive earnings surprise likely contributed to the intraday surge.3. Dividend and Share Repurchases: Cal-Maine's decision to declare a cash dividend of approximately $2.35 per share and its repurchase of approximately $50 million of its common stock further boosted investor confidence. Such shareholder returns can attract more investors and reinforce the stock's upward trend.4. Long-Term Outlook: The company's strategic investments and acquisitions, along with favorable market conditions, such as higher egg prices due to industry supply shortages, have positioned Cal-Maine for long-term growth. These factors likely supported the stock's performance in the days following the surge.In conclusion, Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) experienced a significant intraday surge of 19%, which was followed by strong post-surge performance. The company's robust Q4 results, dividend declaration, share repurchases, and positive long-term outlook all contributed to its continued success in the market.

Breakout Confirmed—Position for a Sustained Bull Run
Cal-Maine Foods’ 18.7% surge marks a structural shift in its valuation narrative, driven by HPAI-driven supply constraints, strategic acquisitions, and pricing power in a high-demand environment. The stock’s breakout above $120 and its 52-week high suggest a multi-week bullish trend, supported by strong technical indicators and earnings momentum. Sector leader Tyson Foods (TSN) remains flat at +0.04% intraday, underscoring CALM’s unique positioning in a niche but critical market. Investors should monitor 1) HPAI outbreak severity, 2) the integration of Echo Lake Foods, and 3) the August 15 options expiry for potential volatility shifts. Aggressive bulls can target CALM20250815C120 for maximum leverage, while conservative traders should watch the $120 psychological level and $125 Fibonacci extension for entry opportunities. With a 4.9x PE and 72% YoY revenue growth, this is a breakout trade with clear catalysts and risk management parameters.