Cadeler's Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge on Vessel Shortages, Contract Security, and Pricing Pressures

Date of Call: November 20, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: EUR 154.3M; reflects higher utilization (92.2%) and additional vessels in operations versus prior year

Guidance:

• Maintain full-year 2025 outlook issued at H1; limited remaining uncertainty.
• Timing of T&I scope for Hornsea 3 may shift across 2025/2026/2027 and can affect year splits.
• Expect modest working-capital movement in Q4 (Q3 contained one-off termination fee inflow).
• Apex financing to be arranged ~1 year prior to 2027 delivery; Wind Keeper bridge replaced by syndicated facility.

Business Commentary:

* Strong Financial Performance and Utilization: - Cadeler A/S reported a financial performance in line with expectations, with 92% utilization in Q3 2025. - The high utilization rate was driven by active engagement across the globe in regions such as the U.S., Europe, and Asia.

• Backlog Growth and Newbuild Deliveries:
• The company's backlog reached almost EUR 2.9 billion, with 78% of that backlog having reached FID.

• This growth is supported by the delivery of 3 out of 4 newbuilds scheduled for 2025 and the expected delivery of the Wind Mover in the coming weeks.

• Market Outlook and Capacity Challenges:

• Cadeler sees a recalibration of market momentum with strong demand in the inner and outer years but a period of weaker demand in between.

• This is due to a high number of projects without installation solutions and a shift in project timelines, indicating potential capacity challenges.

• Strategic Investments in Fleet and Market Positioning:

• Cadeler maintains the largest and most versatile fleet in the industry, enhancing flexibility and predictability for clients.
• The company's strategy involves leveraging its fleet's capabilities to secure favorable contract terms and gain competitive advantages.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management: "financial performance in line with our expectations"; utilization 92.2%; Revenue EUR 154.3M; EBITDA EUR 109.1M; backlog almost EUR 2.9 billion (78% FID) — statements underline strong operational and financial momentum.

Q&A:

• Question from Martin Karlsen (DNB Carnegie): I think you did a pretty good job talking about 2028 being a transition year, but I'm curious to hear a little bit on your confidence level for '29 and '30 seeing higher volumes. Is that related specifically to some events out there? Or is it in general contingent upon more government and political support for offshore wind in Europe?
  Response: Confidence for 2029–30 is driven by the number of projects Cadeler is bidding and client willingness to commit; while auctions/government support matter, the company sees potential foundation capacity tightness in 2029.

• Question from Martin Karlsen (DNB Carnegie): In terms of positioning Cadeler for the next couple of years in terms of backlog, when you get into '29 and '30 could you talk about how you perceive client feedback on having a large fleet and doing both foundations and turbine work versus single/2-vessel companies?
  Response: Clients value predictability and delivery certainty; Cadeler's large, flexible fleet and ability to provide backup vessels is prioritized over pure price in many tender decisions.

• Question from Martin Karlsen (DNB Carnegie): Pricing seems solid for '26/'27 and for some '29/'30 work, but with '28 demand softer can you help us understand regional pricing dynamics?
  Response: Pricing varies by region: Asia remains tighter in 2028, while Europe sees downward/stabilizing pressure in 2028; overall project economics remain attractive despite localized pressure.

• Question from Jamie Franklin (Jefferies LLC): On Hornsea 3, could you give more color on the scope currently being worked and timing expectation for first monopile installation? And for Peter: Q4 cash flow — working capital expectations after a strong Q3 inflow, and CapEx components (final Wind Mover installment, Wind Keeper upgrade etc.)?
  Response: Q4 CapEx primarily Wind Mover, mission equipment for Wind Ally and capitalized borrowing costs (~EUR 320M total); Q3 had a one-off termination-fee inflow so Q4 working capital should show modest growth or similar levels; transport/installation planning and transport work for 2026 starts in Q4.

• Question from Jamie Franklin (Jefferies LLC): On Hornsea 3, could you give more color on the scope currently being worked and timing expectation for first monopile installation?
  Response: Cadeler is in full execution on Hornsea 3, mobilizing vessels and preparing ports; on plan and on budget, but cannot disclose exact monopile timing due to Ørsted announcement constraints (Ally preparing to start in Q1).

• Question from Daniel Vårdal Haugland (ABG Sundal Collier): On the EUR 500M contract you announced, can you give any indication of rough percentage split between T&I services and installation?
  Response: Not disclosed — contract is part of an auction process and split will be revealed only upon passing client milestones.

• Question from Daniel Vårdal Haugland (ABG Sundal Collier): As you ramp up foundations into 2026, will you start segment reporting splitting foundations and WTG?
  Response: No — management has no plans to introduce segment reporting for foundations vs WTG.

• Question from Daniel Vårdal Haugland (ABG Sundal Collier): You expect vessel undersupply toward the end of the decade despite demand shifting right; is that due to supply changes or demand growth?
  Response: Management believes undersupply will persist because clients are actively bidding and committing capacity for 2029–2031 and that many analysts overstate future supply; best-in-class assets will capture demand.

Contradiction Point 1

Vessel Undersupply and Market Demand

It involves differing perspectives on the supply and demand dynamics in the offshore wind market, which is crucial for understanding the company's market positioning and potential growth opportunities.

Given increasing demand, why does Cadeler expect a vessel undersupply? - Daniel Vårdal Haugland (ABG Sundal Collier Holding ASA, Research Division)

2025Q3: Cadeler believes that most analysts underestimate supply-side constraints. Clients are actively securing capacity for later years, and Cadeler is confident in its market position due to project commitments and strategic asset alignment. - Mikkel Gleerup(CEO)

Can you provide insight into contract quality and protection for the industry and your backlog? - Martin Huseby (DNB)

2025Q1: We believe that there is a potential undersupply of vessels in 2029, 2030, and also 2031. - Mikkel Gleerup(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Contract Quality and Protection

It concerns the protection and security of Cadeler's contracts, which is vital for assessing the company's financial stability and operational predictability.

Are you confident in higher volumes by 2030, and is this due to specific events or political backing for offshore wind in Europe? - Martin Karlsen (DNB Carnegie, Research Division)

2025Q3: We believe that everything in the backlog is well protected from a contractual standpoint. We have signed contracts with the right terms to secure both our clients and ourselves. - Mikkel Gleerup(CEO)

Could you explain contract quality and protection across the industry and your backlog, if applicable? - Martin Huseby (DNB)

2025Q1: We always work with backup plans. This vessel is still under contract with Orsted. We have the ability to shift focus and regroup, which is something we can do. - Mikkel Gleerup(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Pricing Dynamics and Market Competition

It relates to the pricing dynamics in the offshore wind market, which affects Cadeler's revenue and competitive positioning.

Can you explain the pricing dynamics between 2028 and 2029 due to changing demand? - Martin Karlsen (DNB Carnegie, Research Division)

2025Q3: Prices in 2028 may face downward pressure due to increased competition, especially in Europe. However, the market is still tight in Asia. - Mikkel Gleerup(CEO)

Where are day rates for O&M operations? - Jamie Franklin (Jefferies LLC, Research Division)

2025Q1: In the spot market, O&M rates are at par with installation rates. Longer-term contracts show slightly lower rates but more visibility. - Mikkel Gleerup(CEO)