Why Cadeler Is Poised for a 2028 Re-Rating Amid Fleet Expansion and Offshore Wind Backlog Growth

The offshore wind sector is entering a pivotal phase of consolidation and operational scaling, and Cadeler AS stands at the intersection of two critical tailwinds: a tightening vessel supply chain and a surging global demand for full-scope installation services. With a fleet expansion that has nearly doubled its operational capacity since 2024 and a EUR 2.887 billion order book as of November 2025, Cadeler is not merely adapting to industry dynamics-it is redefining them. This article argues that the company's strategic positioning, combined with a valuation dislocation relative to industry peers, positions it for a significant re-rating by 2028.

Fleet Expansion and Strategic Positioning: A Full-Service Edge

Cadeler's fleet growth in 2025 has been nothing short of transformative. By expanding from five to nine vessels-including the delivery of three newbuild wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs) and the acquisition of the O&M vessel Wind Keeper)-the company has achieved a 75.8% utilization rate, up from 61.4% in the same period in 2024. This expansion is not just about scale but also about diversification. The addition of the Wind Mover, its tenth vessel, and plans to operate a 12-vessel fleet by mid-2027, ensures Cadeler can handle increasingly complex projects, from monopile foundations to turbine installation, under a single contract.

This full-scope capability is a strategic differentiator. For instance, Cadeler's role in Ørsted's Hornsea 3 project-where it will deploy the Wind Ally for full transportation and installation of turbine foundations-highlights its ability to execute end-to-end solutions. Such projects are becoming the industry standard, as developers seek to minimize coordination risks and optimize timelines. Meanwhile, supply chain constraints that have delayed vessel deliveries for competitors are proving to be a temporary hurdle for Cadeler, which has already secured its near-term fleet needs.

Valuation Dislocation: A P/E and EV/EBITDA Mismatch

Despite its operational strength, Cadeler's valuation metrics suggest a significant disconnect from industry benchmarks. As of December 2025, the company trades at a P/E ratio of 5.06, well below the Construction industry median of 16.525 according to earnings reports. This discrepancy is even more pronounced when compared to offshore wind peers. The sector's EV/EBITDA multiple normalized to 11.1x in Q4 2024, down from a peak of 18.2x in 2020, yet Cadeler's forward-looking EV/EBITDA appears undervalued given its projected EBITDA of EUR 381–421 million for 2025 as reported in Q3 earnings.

This dislocation is partly due to market skepticism about the sector's maturation, but it overlooks Cadeler's unique advantages. Its EUR 2.887 billion order book, with 78% of projects having reached Final Investment Decision (FID), provides near-term visibility that many peers lack. Furthermore, its EBITDA margin of 71% in Q3 2025 (EUR 109.1 million on EUR 154.3 million revenue) demonstrates operational efficiency that could drive earnings growth beyond current estimates.

Supply Chain Constraints and Competitive Edge

The vessel supply chain remains a bottleneck for the offshore wind industry, with delays in newbuilds and upgrades pushing project timelines. However, Cadeler's proactive fleet expansion has insulated it from these risks. By securing its 12-vessel fleet by mid-2027, the company is positioning itself to capitalize on the next phase of offshore wind deployment, particularly in Europe and the U.S., where supply chain bottlenecks are expected to persist until 2028.

This timing is critical. As the industry shifts from speculative growth to execution-driven value creation, companies with proven operational capacity-like Cadeler-will be rewarded. Its ability to execute large-scale projects without relying on third-party vessels (a common challenge for smaller players) gives it a cost and scheduling advantage. For example, the EUR 500 million contracts for full-scope T&I in Poland and an unnamed offshore wind farm underscore its ability to secure high-margin, long-duration work.

Conclusion: A 2028 Re-Rating Is Inevitable

Cadeler's combination of fleet scale, operational efficiency, and a backlog of high-visibility projects creates a compelling case for a re-rating. The company's current valuation, trading at a discount to both industry peers and its intrinsic value, reflects an underappreciation of its strategic positioning in a tightening supply chain. As the offshore wind sector transitions to execution mode and investors reallocate capital toward proven operators, Cadeler's metrics-particularly its P/E and EV/EBITDA-will likely converge with industry averages by 2028. For investors, this represents a rare opportunity to participate in a company that is not just riding the renewable energy wave but steering it.