CACI International Surges 7% on $212M Space Force Contract: Is This the Start of a Bullish Rally?

Summary
• CACI International (NYSE:CACI) surges 7.02% to $602.305, trading at a 52-week high of $614.645
• Awarded a five-year, $212M task order to modernize U.S. Space Force networks
• Technicals show bullish momentum with RSI at 51.4 and MACD crossing above signal line
• Analysts at UBS and Goldman Sachs raise price targets into the $600s, citing defense budget tailwinds and tech-driven growth

CACI’s intraday rally reflects a confluence of strategic contract wins, sector momentum, and technical strength. The stock’s 7% surge—its largest single-day move in months—has pushed it above key moving averages and into overbought territory. With the aerospace and defense sector rallying on geopolitical tensions and budget optimism, investors are now weighing whether this breakout is a catalyst for a sustained move toward $632.77, its 52-week high.

Space Force Contract Ignites Earnings and Growth Optimism
CACI’s 7.02% intraday surge is directly tied to its $212 million task order to modernize U.S. Space Force networks. The contract, awarded under the USAF BIM IDIQ vehicle, positions CACI to design and sustain secure, high-bandwidth infrastructure across 14 installations. This effort aligns with the company’s strategic pivot toward software-defined, mission-critical tech—a shift that has already driven 11.2% YoY revenue growth in its latest quarter. Analysts highlight the contract’s scalability and recurring revenue potential, with Goldman Sachs upgrading its target to $624 from $567. The move also reinforces CACI’s role in the $901 billion NDAA-authorized defense budget, where space and cyber modernization remain top priorities.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Rally as CACI and LMT Lead Charge
The aerospace and defense sector, led by CACI and Lockheed Martin (LMT), is surging on renewed defense spending optimism. LMT, the sector’s largest player, rose 7.73% today, reflecting broader industry momentum. CACI’s 7.02% gain mirrors the sector’s resilience, with UBS naming it one of eight top picks for 2026. The $212M Space Force contract underscores CACI’s niche in secure network modernization, while LMT’s Patriot missile production surge under Pentagon deals highlights the sector’s diversified growth drivers. Both stocks benefit from multi-decade defense programs and geopolitical tailwinds, though CACI’s tech-driven margins and institutional ownership (86.43%) position it as a higher-growth play.

Options and ETF Plays for CACI’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: $495.16 (well below current price)
• RSI: 51.4 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: -7.61 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $602.305, above upper band of $594.21

CACI’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $614.645 (intraday high) and support at $585.605 (intraday low). The stock’s 7.02% surge has pushed it into overbought territory, but strong fundamentals—including a 15.92% ROE and FY2026 EPS guidance of $27.13–$28.03—justify the rally. The XSD (Aerospace & Defense Select Sector SPDR ETF) could serve as a leveraged proxy, though its data is unavailable. Instead, focus on CACI’s options chain:

• CACI20260116C590 (Call, $590 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 38.35% (moderate)
- Leverage: 28.63% (high)
- Delta: 0.64 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -2.43 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0103 (moderate price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 6,296 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($632.42): $40.42/share
- Ideal for aggressive bulls capitalizing on short-term momentum.

• CACI20260116C600 (Call, $600 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 36.03% (moderate)
- Leverage: 41.47% (high)
- Delta: 0.53 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -2.16 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0117 (moderate price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 3,140 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($632.42): $32.42/share
- Balances leverage and liquidity for a mid-term hold.

Aggressive bulls should consider CACI20260116C590 into a break above $614.645. If $600 holds, CACI20260116C600 offers a leveraged play on continued momentum.

Backtest CACI International Stock Performance
The backtest of the Canadian Cannabis Index (CACI) after a 7% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals positive short-to-medium-term performance. The 3-Day win rate is 56.51%, the 10-Day win rate is 58.62%, and the 30-Day win rate is 65.52%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 5.39%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for gains even several days after the initial surge.

CACI’s Breakout: A Catalyst for Sustained Growth or a Short-Lived Spike?
CACI’s 7.02% surge on the $212M Space Force contract signals strong near-term momentum, but sustainability hinges on maintaining institutional buying and sector tailwinds. The stock’s technicals—bullish MACD, overbought RSI, and break above Bollinger Bands—favor a continuation toward $632.77. Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT), up 7.73%, reinforces the industry’s strength. Investors should monitor CACI’s ability to hold $600 and $614.645 as key resistance levels. For those seeking leverage, the CACI20260116C590 call option offers a high-reward, high-risk play. If $600 breaks, consider adding CACI20260116C600 for a leveraged bet on a multi-decade defense tech rally.