CACI International Plunges 4.94%—Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Requiem?

Summary
• CACI International (CACI) fell 4.94% to $456.135, marking its steepest intraday drop since January 2024.
• Institutional investors like Valley Wealth Managers and GAMMA Investing increased holdings by 6.1% and 91,931% respectively in Q1.
• Earnings beat estimates by $0.70/share, with revenue up 11.8% year-over-year.
• Turnover surged to 142,640 shares, but volume remains below 52-week average. The stock's 52-week range of $318.595–$588.26 highlights extreme volatility.
Today’s selloff in CACI defies its strong earnings report and institutional backing, sparking debates over short-term catalysts. The stock’s collapse to $454.45—a 10-year low—has ignited speculation about overleveraged positions, macroeconomic fears, or sector-specific jitters. With the IT Services sector showing mixed signals and IBM rising 1.2%, CACI’s divergence demands scrutiny.

Institutional Inflows Amid Sharp Selloff
CACI’s 4.94% drop defies its institutional buying spree, with Valley Wealth Managers increasing holdings by 6.1% and GAMMA Investing boosting stakes by an astronomical 91,931% in Q1. This paradox suggests profit-taking by short-term traders or broader market risk-off sentiment. The stock’s 52-week high of $588.26 and current price near Bollinger Band support at $465.41 indicate oversold conditions. However, the lack of follow-through buying power (volume at 142,640 vs. 52-week average of 219,941) signals weak conviction in the rally, exacerbating the selloff.

IT Services Sector Mixed as IBM Rises 1.2%
CACI’s 4.94% drop contrasts with the IT Services sector’s mixed performance. IBM (IBM) gained 1.22% on strong AI adoption momentum, while CACI’s weakness highlights sector divergence. CACI’s 22.00 P/E ratio lags behind the sector average of 25.6x, suggesting potential undervaluation if the selloff corrects. The stock’s 0.66 beta indicates lower volatility than the sector, making its current move appear overextended relative to peers.

Options Playbook: Short-Dated Calls Amid RSI Divergence
• 200-day MA: $441.39 (below current price)
• RSI: 31.6 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 4.8 vs. signal line 6.4 (bearish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $456.135 vs. lower band $465.41 (oversold)
CACI’s technicals present a high-risk, high-reward setup. The stock is testing critical support at $465.41 (lower Bollinger Band) and the 30-day MA of $472.64. A break below $454.45 intraday low could trigger further declines toward $436.13 (100-day MA).

CACI20260320C470
• Type: Call
• Strike: $470
• Expiry: 2026-03-20
• IV: 0.23% (low volatility)
• Delta: 0.0164 (minimal directional sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.001467 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0482 (moderate sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 0
• LVR: 91,931%
This contract offers asymmetric upside in a potential rebound above $470, but its low IV and zero volume suggest limited liquidity. Aggressive bulls may consider CACI20260320C470 into a break above $478.93 (30-day support/resistance range).

CACI20260320C480
• Type: Call
• Strike: $480
• Expiry: 2026-03-20
• IV: 0.40% (low volatility)
• Delta: 0.009969 (minimal directional sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.000943 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.017935 (moderate sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 0
• LVR: 92,614.40%
While CACI20260320C480 offers extreme leverage, its delta and IV suggest it’s more suitable for speculative long-term plays. A 5% downside to $434.00 would result in a call option payoff of $0 (strike price $470 vs. ST $434).

If $465.41 support breaks, consider shorting the March 2026 put options with a strike near $450. The current 31.6 RSI suggests a 70% probability of mean reversion within 10 trading days.

Backtest CACI International Stock Performance
The CACI index has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term gains following a -5% intraday plunge. The backtest data reveals favorable win rates and returns for various time frames:1. 3-Day Win Rate and Return: The win rate is 57.40%, with an average return of 0.36% over 3 days. This indicates a higher probability of positive returns in the short term.2. 10-Day Win Rate and Return: The win rate is 55.60%, with an average return of 0.87% over 10 days. This suggests that even longer, moderate-term gains can be expected.3. 30-Day Win Rate and Return: The win rate is 62.09%, with an average return of 2.66% over 30 days. This indicates a strong likelihood of positive returns and a higher average return as the time frame increases.4. Maximum Return: The maximum return during the backtest period was 5.05%, which occurred on day 59. This highlights the potential for significant gains following a -5% intraday plunge.In conclusion, the CACI index has demonstrated a strong tendency towards positive returns following a substantial intraday decline. Investors may consider this behavior when assessing the potential impact of such events on their investment strategy.

Rebound or Requiem? Key Levels to Watch Now
CACI’s 4.94% drop has created a critical inflection point. The stock must hold above $465.41 (lower Bollinger Band) to avoid a test of the 100-day MA at $436.13. A close above $478.93 (30-day support) could validate the short-term bullish pattern. With IBM (IBM) rising 1.22% as the sector leader, CACI’s divergence highlights its speculative nature. Investors should monitor the 31.6 RSI for a potential oversold rebound. For now, watch $465.41 support or a break above $478.93 for directional clarity.

Watch for Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)’s -5.41% selloff to signal broader sector weakness. If $465.41 breaks, CACI20260320P450 could offer short-side potential.