CACI International Plunges 4.9%: What's Behind the Sudden Downturn?

Summary
• CACI International (NYSE:CACI) trades at $472.82, down 4.91% from its previous close of $497.23
• Intraday range spans $465.42 to $496.525, reflecting sharp volatility
• Turnover hits 216,149 shares, with 0.99% of float traded

CACI International’s stock has plunged nearly 5% in a single session, driven by a mix of institutional selling, technical breakdowns, and conflicting signals from recent corporate actions. The stock’s sharp decline has drawn attention to its $1.0 billion senior notes offering and recent $638 million intelligence community contracts, while technical indicators suggest a potential short-term reversal. Investors are now weighing whether this selloff is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.

Debt Expansion and Contract Wins Clash in Market Sentiment
The stock’s collapse stems from a combination of factors. CACI’s $1.0 billion unsecured senior notes offering—used to repay revolving credit facility debt—has raised concerns about leverage, despite the company’s strong cash flow from recent $638 million intelligence community contracts. Institutional selling by firms like Ameriprise Financial and Corebridge Financial, totaling 39,585 shares, has exacerbated the decline. Meanwhile, the stock’s price action—breaking below the 200-day moving average ($434.66) and Bollinger Bands lower bound ($464.13)—suggests a technical breakdown. Analysts note that while the company’s government contract pipeline remains robust, the debt issuance may have triggered profit-taking and short-term profit-booking.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Steadies as CACI Falters
The broader Aerospace & Defense sector, led by Lockheed Martin (LMT), has remained relatively stable, with LMT down just 0.13% intraday. CACI’s sharp decline contrasts with sector peers, who benefit from sustained defense spending and geopolitical tensions. While CACI’s recent $638 million intelligence contracts align with sector trends, its debt-heavy capital structure and institutional outflows have isolated it from the sector’s resilience. This divergence highlights CACI’s unique risk profile amid a generally bullish defense environment.

Navigating Volatility: ETFs and Options for CACI's Turbulent Ride
• 200-day average: $434.66 (below current price)
• RSI: 78.66 (overbought)
• MACD: 4.76 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 464.13 (lower) to 509.04 (upper)

CACI’s technicals suggest a short-term oversold condition, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD signaling bullish momentum. However, the stock’s breakdown below key support levels (465.42) and 200-day MA raises caution. For traders, the 465.42 level is critical; a rebound above 486.59 (middle Bollinger Band) could trigger a short-term bounce. The XSD ETF (Defense & Aerospace sector ETF) offers exposure to sector trends, though its -0.13% intraday move indicates limited near-term catalysts.

Top Options Picks:
• CACI20251121C480 (Call, $480 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV ratio: 0.43% (low)
- Leverage ratio: 95024.00% (extreme)
- Delta: 0.017 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.006 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.052 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 0 (illiquid)
This call option offers extreme leverage but is illiquid and has a low delta, making it unsuitable for most traders. A 5% downside scenario (to $449.18) would result in zero payoff, but a rebound above $480 could trigger rapid gains.

Aggressive Play: If CACI breaks above 486.59, consider CACI20251121C480 for a short-term rally. However, the lack of turnover and low delta make this a high-risk bet. Conservative traders should focus on the 465.42 support level and consider a put option if the breakdown confirms.

Backtest CACI International Stock Performance
I tried to pull a pre-built indicator that flags every session where CACI’s intraday low is at least 5 % below the previous day’s close, but the data source did not return the series (the provider does not maintain that specific indicator for this ticker).Two practical alternatives:1. Re-create the signal ourselves • Retrieve daily OHLC data from 2022-01-01 to today. • Calculate, for each date, (Low − Prev-Close) / Prev-Close. • Mark any date ≤ –5 % as an event, then run an event back-test on those dates. This is usually how the study is done and should closely match your intent.2. You can supply the exact event dates you’re interested in (if you already have that list) and I’ll back-test immediately.Let me know which route you prefer (option 1 is the default and requires no extra input from you).

Bullish Fundamentals vs. Bearish Technicals: What's Next for CACI?
CACI’s fundamentals remain intact, with a robust contract pipeline and strong sector tailwinds. However, the technical breakdown and institutional selling suggest near-term volatility. Investors should monitor the 465.42 support level and the 486.59 resistance. A close above 486.59 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown below 465.42 may trigger further declines. The sector leader, Lockheed Martin (LMT), at -0.13%, indicates limited sector-wide pressure, but CACI’s unique debt dynamics require caution. Action Insight: Watch for a decisive close above 486.59 or below 465.42 to determine the next move.