Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook Challenges the Four-Year Crypto Cycle

Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has published its 2026 Crypto Outlook. The report, released on January 6, 2026, explores how macroeconomic conditions, derivatives markets, and regulatory developments could influence the digital asset space in the coming year. It focuses primarily on Bitcoin and broader market trends while assessing the role of historical cycles.

The report challenges the relevance of the four-year crypto market cycle, historically linked to Bitcoin halving events. While these cycles remain a reference point, their influence appears to be diminishing as macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure increasingly shape price behavior. The analysis suggests that crypto markets are evolving beyond traditional frameworks.

Bybit’s report highlights key macroeconomic drivers, including expectations of monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This environment could support risk assets broadly, including Bitcoin. The report also notes that Bitcoin has lagged behind equities in recent months, but a renewed positive correlation may emerge if macro conditions remain accommodative.

Why Did This Happen?

The Bybit 2026 Crypto Outlook emphasizes the diminishing influence of historical cycles, pointing to the growing role of institutional participation and macroeconomic factors. These elements have taken center stage in determining price behavior, suggesting a shift from patterns traditionally observed in crypto markets.

The report also points to the importance of derivatives market signals. Based on options data, there is a 10.3% implied probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end 2026. This figure reflects market pricing rather than a forecast, indicating that options markets may be conservatively positioned relative to broader macro and regulatory developments.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Despite a constructive backdrop, the report underscores the need to monitor policy and event-driven risks. These include potential changes to major stock indexes and the possibility of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later in 2026. Such developments could introduce volatility across asset classes and affect market sentiment.

Structural developments, such as real-world asset tokenization, are also highlighted as key themes for 2026. Building on the stablecoin adoption seen in 2025, tokenization is expected to gain momentum. Additionally, efforts to strengthen crypto market infrastructure are gaining attention, particularly in addressing risks posed by quantum computing advances.

The report concludes that while market cycles, sentiment, and volatility remain central to crypto markets, their interactions are evolving. Institutional participation, regulatory engagement, and macroeconomic support may allow digital assets to diverge from historical patterns. This suggests that crypto markets could behave differently in 2026 compared to previous years, even as uncertainty and volatility persist.

Bybit’s analysis provides a detailed framework for understanding how macroeconomic and structural forces may shape the digital asset landscape in the coming year. The full report, titled Bybit x Block Scholes – 2026 Crypto Outlook, is available for download and includes detailed data, methodology, and analysis supporting these conclusions.