Should You Buy Rio Tinto Stock After a 64.9% Rally in 6 Months?

Rio Tinto Group RIO shares have surged 64.9% in the past six months, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500, which have returned 31.8% and 4.1%, respectively. Among its peers, BHP Group Limited’s BHP shares have gained 36.7% and NioCorp Developments Ltd. NB declined 6.6%, respectively, over the same time frame.

RIO Outperforms Industry & S&P 500

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Closing at $91.68 in the last trading session, the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $101.53 and significantly higher than its 52-week low of $51.67. It is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum and confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

RIO Stock’s 50-Day & 200-Day Moving Averages

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Let’s take a look at RIO’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.

Factors Driving Rio Tinto’s Performance

Rio Tinto is benefiting from rising copper production, driven by strong operational performance across its assets. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company’s consolidated copper output increased 5% year over year.

RIO continues to advance its project pipeline. In December 2025, the company achieved its first copper production at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona using its proprietary Nuton technology. This marks a significant milestone, as Nuton enables cleaner, faster and more efficient copper recovery at an industrial scale.

The Johnson Camp deployment includes the design and delivery of a heap leach technology package, targeting approximately 30,000 tons of refined copper over a four-year demonstration period. RIO plans to use Nuton technology to produce copper at this site with the lowest carbon emissions in the US.

Also, the company is actively collaborating with U.S. customers to strengthen the domestic copper supply. Its total copper production reached 883 kiloton (kt) in 2025, up 11% on a year-over-year basis.

In the fourth quarter, RIO’s iron ore operations in the Pilbara facility showed improvement, with shipments rising 7% from the previous year. The aluminum production also delivered encouraging results. RIO’s aluminum output rose 2% in the quarter, on a year-over-year basis, as refinery and smelter operations improved.

In March 2026, Rio Tinto announced its plans to extract gallium from its alumina refining process in Quebec. After producing its first gallium with Indium Corp. in 2025, the company plans to build a pilot plant in Canada, which is expected to begin operations in 2027. The project has received conditional funding support from Natural Resources Canada and the Government of Québec. If scaled to commercial production, the facility could produce about 40 tons of gallium annually.

Also, in January 2026, Rio Tinto and Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chalco) inked a deal to acquire Votorantim’s controlling stake in Brazilian aluminium company CBA through a joint venture. The joint venture will be owned 33% by Rio Tinto and 67% by Chalco. The deal will help RIO to expand its green aluminium footprint and strengthen its supply chain.

Several major growth projects of the company are progressing as well. In March 2026, Rio Tinto secured a $1.175 billion financing package from International Finance Corp., IDB Invest, Export Finance Australia and Japan Bank for International Cooperation to support development of the $2.5 billion Rincon lithium project in Salta Province, Argentina. The project aims to produce about 60,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually, with first production expected in 2028 and a 40-year mine life.

In December 2025, RIO’s Rhodes Ridge joint venture approved a $191 million feasibility study to develop one of the world’s major undeveloped iron ore deposits in Western Australia, aiming for an initial annual production of 40-50 million tons. The study is expected to conclude in 2029. In October 2025, at the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the first ore was loaded and transported, marking the start of commissioning across the mine, rail and port infrastructure.

Despite the overall solid performance, the company faced some challenges during the quarter. Weather-related disruptions earlier in 2025 affected iron ore volumes. Planned maintenance activities at some copper mining projects temporarily reduced output, while cost pressures from inflation and higher sustaining capital spending impacted margins.

RIO operates in the mineral exploration and mining markets, which include major industry players like BHP Group and NioCorp.

RIO’s Estimate Revisions

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIO’s bottom line for 2026 has increased 4.9% in the past 30 days.

Valuation

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From a valuation standpoint, Rio Tinto is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.71X compared with the industry’s average of 14.69X. In comparison, BHP Group and NB are trading at 14.68X and negative 9.37X, respectively.

Conclusion

Despite operational challenges, Rio Tinto’s steady progress across growth projects supports a positive long-term outlook. Higher copper output, advancement at major iron ore projects and improving aluminium and lithium operations position it for sustained growth, creating an attractive opportunity for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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