Should You Buy Palantir Before May 5?

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has emerged as a paradox of modern investing: a company delivering explosive growth in government and enterprise AI applications, yet trading at valuations that strain even the most bullish investor’s patience. With its next earnings report due on May 5, 2025, the question for investors is whether to bet on Palantir’s momentum—or to wait for a correction.

The case for buying hinges on the company’s recent results. In Q4 2024, Palantir reported a 36% year-over-year revenue surge to $463 million, fueled by a 56% jump in total contract value (TCV) and net dollar retention of 120%, signaling strong client loyalty. CEO Alexander Karp emphasized the “commoditization of large language models,” positioning Palantir as a critical partner for clients looking to apply AI to real-world problems, such as logistics optimization or fraud detection.

The stock’s performance after earnings has historically been dramatic. Following its Q3 2024 report on November 4, 2024, shares jumped 23.47% the next day. Similarly, after the February 3, 2025, Q4 results, the stock rose 23.99%, valuing the company at over $18 billion. This volatility underscores Palantir’s reliance on investor sentiment about its AI narrative.

Yet the risks are stark. Palantir’s 2025 revenue guidance of 31% growth assumes continued demand for its AI tools, which may face headwinds as competitors like Microsoft and Google expand their enterprise offerings. More immediately, its valuation—180x 2025 adjusted EPS—is nearly triple that of NVIDIA, a far larger and more diversified AI player. Analysts warn that even a minor miss on May 5 could trigger a sharp selloff.

The company’s financial health offers mixed signals. While adjusted free cash flow hit $517 million in 2024 (a 63% margin), its net income remains thin, and it still carries over $1 billion in long-term debt. The $1.8 billion TCV added in Q4, while robust, pales against the scale of cloud giants.

Investors must also weigh the macro landscape. The U.S. government, a key client, faces budget constraints that could slow Palantir’s growth. Meanwhile, the commercial sector’s adoption of AI depends on economic resilience—something not guaranteed in 2025.

In conclusion, buying Palantir before May 5 is a gamble on two fronts: execution and valuation tolerance. The May 5 earnings report will test whether the company’s AI-driven momentum can justify its price tag. If it reaffirms its 31% annual revenue growth target, investors may see further upside. However, given the stock’s sensitivity to guidance and the elevated P/E ratio, a cautious approach might involve waiting for a post-earnings pullback or focusing on shorter-term trades.

The data is clear: Palantir’s growth is real, but its valuation is a leap of faith. For aggressive investors willing to bet on AI’s long-term transformation of industries, PLTR could pay off. For others, the risks of overpaying for future promises remain too great.