Should You Buy Energy Stocks With Trump in the White House? Maybe Not, According to a Recent Survey of Oil Execs

The energy sector has always been a rollercoaster ride for investors, but the recent policy shifts under President Donald Trump have added a new layer of complexity. As the administration focuses on expanding fossil fuel production and imposing tariffs, oil executives are expressing significant concerns about the future of the industry. A recent survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas sheds light on these concerns, revealing a stark contrast between the public optimism of oil executives and their private anxieties.



The survey, which included responses from 130 oil firms, highlighted several key issues that are causing uncertainty in the energy market. One of the most pressing concerns is the administration's tariff policies, particularly on steel, which have increased costs for energy companies. "Trump's tariffs on steel had increased costs, making it difficult to plan for projects," one executive noted. This increase in costs can reduce profit margins and make new investments less attractive, potentially leading to a decrease in stock prices for energy companies.

Another major concern is the administration's push for lower oil prices to combat inflation. One executive stated, "The threat of $50 oil prices by the administration has caused our firm to reduce its 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures." Lower oil prices can make drilling new wells unprofitable, leading to reduced investment and potential job losses in the industry. This could negatively impact energy stocks, as investors may perceive the sector as less profitable.

The survey also revealed that the administration's focus on increasing leasing and slashing red tape around permitting has been praised publicly by some executives. However, the underlying uncertainty about future regulatory changes can still deter long-term investments. As one executive put it, "Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability."

These concerns translate into several investment risks and opportunities for energy stocks. On the risk side, uncertainty and increased costs can lead to delays or cancellations of new projects, reducing the potential for future revenue growth. Reduced profit margins due to higher costs and lower oil prices can also make energy stocks less attractive to investors. Additionally, a decline in oil production due to low prices can lead to job losses and an overall downturn in the industry, negatively impacting energy stocks.

On the opportunity side, if the administration can provide more stability and predictability in its energy policies, it could encourage long-term investments and boost energy stocks. Companies that can effectively manage increased costs due to tariffs or find alternative suppliers may see cost savings, improving their financial performance and stock prices. Energy companies that diversify their portfolios to include renewable energy and clean tech may be better positioned to weather policy changes and take advantage of new opportunities in the energy sector.



In conclusion, while the Trump administration's focus on fossil fuels and tariffs has introduced significant uncertainty and volatility in the energy market, there are still opportunities for investors who can navigate the complexities of the sector. However, the recent survey of oil executives suggests that investors should approach energy stocks with caution, as the administration's policies may continue to create challenges for the industry in the near term.