Should You Buy Barrick Mining Stock After a 61% Rally in 6 Months?

Barrick Mining Corporation’s B shares have rallied 61.3% in the past six months, buoyed by the record-setting upswing in gold prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions, economic and tariff-related uncertainties and its forecast-topping earnings performance riding on a surge in realized prices.

Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 53% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 6.1% in the past six months. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation NEM, Kinross Gold Corporation KGC and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM have rallied 57.6%, 50.8% and 50.9%, respectively, over the same period.

B’s 6-month Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

B stock slipped below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 3, 2026. It is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA has been reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.

B Trades Below 50-Day SMA

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.

Key Projects to Underpin Production Growth for Barrick

Barrick is well-placed to benefit from the progress in key growth projects, which should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects, including Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are underway. These projects are advancing on schedule and within budget, laying the groundwork for the next generation of profitable production.

The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program, which shows significant resource growth potential. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase. The first production is expected by the end of 2028.

Moreover, the $2-billion Super Pit Expansion Project at its Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy. The expansion is expected to produce 240,000 tons of copper annually.

Barrick’s Robust Liquidity & Cash Flows Bode Well

Barrick has a solid liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, positioning it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, drive shareholder value and reduce debt. At the end of fourth-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $6.7 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter, up 13% year over year, while free cash flow rose 9% year over year to around $1.6 billion. For full-year 2025, operating cash flow surged 71% to around $7.7 billion, and free cash flow shot up 194% to $3.9 billion.

Barrick returned $2.4 billion to its shareholders in 2025 through dividends and repurchases. It repurchased shares worth $1.5 billion during 2025, including $500 million in the fourth quarter. The company increased its dividend to 42 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 140% increase over the third quarter. It also announced a new dividend policy that targets a total payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow on an annualized basis.

Barrick offers a dividend yield of 3.6% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 29% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 5.9%.

Elevated Gold Prices to Drive B’s Margins and Cash Flow

Rallying gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick. Gold prices saw an unprecedented rally in 2025, mainly attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide accumulated gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies.

While gold prices have fallen from their January 2026 highs, they remain favorable. Heightened geopolitical strains, a weaker U.S. dollar, fresh tariff threats and renewed concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve drove bullion to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. This was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-booking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar after hitting a four-year low. Bargain hunting following the massive selloff again pushed up prices to above $5,000 per ounce.

Gold gained strength recently, surging past $5,400 per ounce on Monday on strong safe-haven demand, after the United States and Israel started joint strikes on Iran over the weekend, leading to a major escalation. The strikes that led to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatened oil supply and sent shockwaves to markets globally, triggering selloffs while boosting oil prices. Gold prices have pulled back from Monday’s highs, partly due to a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid inflation worries. Nevertheless, prices have again recouped some losses amid war-led uncertainties, currently hovering above $5,100 per ounce.

Sustained central bank purchases and persistent safe-haven demand tied to prevailing geopolitical tensions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East and concerns over further escalation in the coming days, along with broader macroeconomic uncertainties, are likely to continue to support gold prices.

Barrick Buffeted by Higher Production Costs

Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may weigh on its margins. Its total cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 15% and 9% year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter, and rose from the previous quarter as well. AISC of $1,581 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. AISC also rose 10% year over year to $1,637 in 2025.

Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, contributed to the rise in its unit costs. Barrick’s consolidated gold production fell roughly 19% year over year to 871,000 ounces in the fourth quarter, and declined 17% in 2025.

For 2026, Barrick projects AISC in the range of $1,760-$1,950 per ounce, indicating a significant year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Cash costs per ounce are forecast to be $1,330-$1,470, up from $1,199 in 2025. Lower grades mined, higher prices of key consumables and raised gold price assumptions are expected to contribute to increased costs in 2026. The increase also reflects a higher cost base at Loulo-Gounkoto as the company ramps up mining following the return of control in December 2025.

Barrick’s Earnings Estimates Reflect Positive Sentiment

Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has been revised higher over the same time frame.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 49.6% and 19.1%, respectively.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

A Look at Barrick Stock’s Valuation

B stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 12.41X, a roughly 7.9% discount to the industry’s average of 13.47X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Kinross Gold. Barrick, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.

B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How Should Investors Play B Stock?

Barrick’s efforts to enhance production, its solid financial position, healthy earnings outlook, appealing valuation and reliable dividend yield present a favorable setup. Elevated gold prices should further support profitability and strengthen cash flow. Higher production costs, however, call for caution.

Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Quantum Computing Stocks Set To Soar

Artificial intelligence has already reshaped the investment landscape, and its convergence with quantum computing could lead to the most significant wealth-building opportunities of our time.

Today, you have a chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this technological revolution. In our urgent special report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power, you'll discover the little-known stocks we believe will win the quantum computing race and deliver massive gains to early investors.

Access the Report Free Now >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Newmont Corporation (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report

Barrick Mining Corporation (B): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research